OFFSEASON OPTIONS ALL START WITH SALE

Before the Red Sox make any trades or free agent signings this offseason, one of the first things they can do, one of the most obvious and important things they can do, is to figure out what it will cost to extend Chris Sale. Sale could be the key to the entire offseason. He’s certainly the key to their future, and without knowing the likelihood that he’ll still be wearing a Boston uniform in 2020, it’s difficult to look at the available starting pitchers this winter and assess the best route for a Red Sox team trying to go all-in in 2019 and 2020. Before presenting a few scenarios for what an A-plus offseason might look like for this team, one has to consider the two best players. Mookie Betts is the motor that keeps the team running. But the Sox still have two more years with the American League MVP, who has made it very clear that he wants to take his contract situation year to year. Attempts to come together on a long-term extension were unsuccessful in the past, Betts said there were no hard feelings and he’s simply made a bet on himself to get better and better before free agency. Locking up Betts to a long-term deal, or letting him walk away, will indicate the entire direction of the franchise. But that’s not until 2021. There are two long years before that happens. And two golden opportunities to win another World Series trophy and create a dynasty to cement Dave Dombrowski’s name in Cooperstown. Right now, Sale has to be the priority. Because if the Sox think they can keep him longer than 2019, they can avoid making a splash in the starting pitching market and focus elsewhere. But if it’s looking unlikely, or uncertain, there are options they can capitalize on this winter to bolster the rotation for 2019 and beyond. First, a quick word about what it might cost. The short answer: a king’s ransom. Baseball contracts are almost always tied up in history. Where does Player A compare to similar players near his age in past years? For Sale, it’s not that easy. His numbers are too good. He’s not even 30 years old and already is close to a Hall of Fame career. A few more good years, or a half-dozen more decent years, ought to punch his ticket. No, he hasn’t won a Cy Young Award. But he’s the first player ever to finish in the top-five in voting in six straight seasons in the American League. His career strikeout ratio of 10.9 per nine innings is the best in baseball history, just edging Randy Johnson’s 10.6. His strikeout-towalk ratio of 5.3 is also the best in history. So where does he compare to the best in baseball over the last five years? His 2.85 ERA is tied for fourth, behind Clayton Kershaw, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. His 1,260 strikeouts are second only to Scherzer. His 0.99 WHIP is behind only Kershaw and Scherzer. And he’s been durable, with 981- 2/3 innings ranking seventh in that time. Let’s compare these numbers to pitchers who recently signed large free agent contracts. David Price, who signed for seven years, $217 million, had a 3.02 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in his five years before signing. Zack Greinke, who signed for $206.5 million over six years with Arizo-

na, had a 2.82 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. At 29 years old, Sale is still in his prime. Expect no less than $200 million over six years for Sale, depending how these next six months go. If his shoulder issue isn’t a long-term concern, the Sox could give Sale a risk-free 2019 season by locking him up now, giving the franchise a dominant ace for the long-term. So let’s take a look at two sce narios this offseason one in which the Red Sox either extend Sale or at least have the belief that they will after 2019, and another where they don’t extend him and/or don’t believe they will. Here’s one offseason template if they think Sale will still be around in 2019: Re-sign Steve Pearce (check). Sign Andrew Miller. Sign second-tier reliever like Brad Brach or Cody Allen. Trade Blake Swihart for a second baseman. On the starting pitching side, there’s not much to do. With Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello and Eduardo Rodriguez giving the Red Sox four better-than-average start ers, and Steven Wright Brian Johnr son and Hector Velazquez provid ing the team wipth, there isn’t a dire need. The priority can then be on the bullpen, where Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly left big holes. It seems unlikely that the Sox would pay up for Kimbrel, given Dombrowski’s track record of looking for bargain plays out of red lief. Kelly could be an option, but if the Sox are going to spend $20 30 million on a multiyear deal for a reliever, Andrew Miller makes a lot more sense. His versatility would give Alex Cora the option to use his relief crew in a more interchangeable way, one he’s discussed in the past. And while the Sox went the en tire 2018 season without a lefty in the pen, they lost arguably their two best relievers against lefties in Kimbrel and Kelly, who held them to a .631 and .610 OPS, respectively. Kelly was their most-used relie er against lefties, with 114 at-bats against them. To add depth, the Sox could look to Brach or Allen, two for mer high-end relievers coming off down seasons who are projected to get two-year deals in the $12-16 million range. These are the bar gain finds Dombrowski tends to look for. There’s certainly risk that they won’t perform, but the team can put their trust in pitching guru Brian Bannister, pitching coach

Dana LeVangie and bullpen coach Craig Bjornson to see if they can squeeze the best out of them. On offense, there’s little for the Sox to do. They signed Pearce to a one-year deal worth $6.25 million on Friday, cementing their lineup against lefties. They should find another option at second base, since they’re unsure if Dustin Pedroia will be healthy and/or productive. Trading Swihart could solve two problems in one move. The Herald learned this week that the Red Sox are, once again, planning to bring Swihart to spring training as a catcher, though they expect him to take some reps at other positions this offseason. That they’re once again keeping him behind the plate signals their desire to get the most out of his trade value. After the World Series ended, Dombrowski made it sound as if the Sox would be looking to trade one of their three catchers. “I’d say it’s unlikely but not impossible that you have three guys,” Dombrowski said. “They all have their strengths, but I’m not really sure where that’s going to take us at this point... If you only take two of them, there’s only three ways you could go and I’m not sure which way we’d go. It would just depend upon if we had discussions with other clubs where that would take us.” And here’s an offseason template if the Red Sox are uncertain or think it’s unlikely that Sale will be on the team beyond 2019: Re-sign Pearce (check). Sign Charlie Morton or Nathan Eovaldi OR trade for Zack Greinke. Sign second-tier reliever like Brach or Allen. Trade Swihart for a second baseman. Looking beyond 2019, when Sale and Porcello will be free agents, the Red Sox should make an effort to re-sign Eovaldi, sign Morton or trade for Greinke. After Eovaldi’s dominant postseason, it’s difficult to see him coming cheap. MLB Trade Rumors projects four years, $60 million. Given there are only a few top-tier starters available this year and he’s only 28 years old, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him make more than that. Same goes for Morton, 35, who had a 3.13 ERA in 167 innings this year but dealt with shoulder issues at season’s end. Both have elite stuff and have shown flashes of being as good as any pitcher in the game. They make the Red Sox better in 2019 and beyond, and they shouldn’t break the bank. Acquiring Greinke is more of an outside-the-box idea. He’s 35 years old and still owed $93.5 million over the next three years, but, like Sale, he hasn’t showed signs of slowing down. The Diamondbacks are expected to be rebuilding and shouldn’t be asking for too much for Greinke, assuming the Red Sox would take most of his contract. It sets up the Red Sox for another big payroll in 2019, but there could be more than $80 million coming off the books after the season. There will be money to spend. But the forethought for that spending begins years before it happens. And it all starts with Sale.