What a third term for Baker might bring
Third term, Charlie? How about fixing the second term first?
Yet, If Gov. Charlie Baker wants an unprecedented third consecutive term as governor, as is the talk, he probably will get it.
Despite the ongoing, systemic problems with the MBTA (Massachusetts Bay Trauma Authority), the State Police overtime embezzlement scandal and now the suspended driver’s license disaster at the pathetically incompetent Registry of Motor Vehicles, nothing sticks to the man.
I’m working on things, the governor says, and in the long run everything is going to work out just fine. So, trust me, he adds. And the people do, which is why he is so popular.
In that way he is a lot like Republican Ronald Reagan, the Teflon president. Unlike Reagan, who was a staunch ideological conservative, Baker’s political attraction is that he is not.
He is a RINO, or a CD (Closet Democrat), whose appeal crosses party lines. And, unlike past governors, he is not running for president. At least not yet.
Democratic leaders on Beacon Hill — House Speaker Robert DeLeo and Senate President Karen Spilka — love working with him.
Also, it does not hurt in Massachusetts that he thinks his fellow Republican in the White House is a dope.
Baker likes being governor. He works well with the Democratic-controlled Legislature and he shows up for work every day. At the end of it all, he knows he can go back to the private sector, where his future is lucrative and secure. Meanwhile, why not run again and win? He can make history by becoming the first governor to be elected to three consecutive terms. And doing it as a Republican in a state that is overwhelmingly Democrat and progressive.
Democrat Michael Dukakis served three four-year terms but they were not consecutive. Elected in 1974, he was defeated four years later by fellow Democrat Ed King. Dukakis beat King in 1982 and was re-elected in 1986. Dukakis in 1988 ran for president and was beaten by President George H. W. Bush
It is a nice Baker narrative. But maybe the next time the subject comes up, some enterprising State House reporter might ask — should Baker run — if he would he complete the term, as he promised to do when he ran for re-election in 2018.
This also supposes that Baker would defeat some Democratic cream puff in 2022, and not face someone serious, like Attorney General Maura Healey.
Would a re-elected Baker resign mid-term and make Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito acting governor? This way Polito, as an incumbent, would have an edge against any opponent if she ran for a full term in 2026.
Republican governors have been known to do just that. Gov. Bill Weld in his second term resigned in 1997 to pursue the U.S. ambassadorship to Mexico, which he failed to get.
The late. Gov. Paul Cellucci, Weld’s lieutenant governor, finished out Weld’s term as acting governor. He won election to a full four-year term in 1998, defeating Democratic Attorney General Scott Harshbarger in a tight race that proved the value of incumbency.
Cellucci, following in Weld’s footsteps, also resigned in 2001 to become U.S. ambassador to Canada. This made Lt. Gov. Jane Swift acting governor.
But before Swift could run for a full four-year term in 2004 — and become the first woman elected governor — Republican Mitt Romney elbowed her out of the way. She did not run.
He did and won. After serving one term, Romney was off running for president, twice. The Republican nominee in 2012, he was beaten by President Obama.
Lieutenant governors do not fare well when they run for governor. They can get elected governor, however, if they get the opportunity to be acting governor first, as Cellucci did, and as Frank Sargent did long before that.
Political observers believe that Polito needs to become acting governor first if she has any chance of being elected governor
She has been a loyal sidekick to the governor, whether it is handling patronage or pushing Baker’s programs. She is probably the only living politician who has visited each of the 351 cities and towns in the state.
Even so, without a boost from Baker, Polito would have a tough time beating back a Democrat in a general election if, for instance, that opponent was Maura Healey, or Boston Mayor Marty Walsh.
This is not to imply that there is succession deal between Baker and Polito. But it would be surprising if there is not.