Pats offense tough to call
With Gronk gone, questions abound
Regardless of any offseason departures, no matter how dire things have looked in September, the Patriots annually assemble an offense that ranks among the league’s most dangerous. It’s automatic, really. They’ve ranked no lower than fourth in scoring each year since 2010. That’s an absurd nine consecutive finishes inside the top five. To put that in perspective, only two other franchises cracked the top five in three consecutive seasons during that span (the Broncos at the peak of Peyton Manning’s dominance, from 2012-14, and the Saints from 2016-18).
Each Patriots offense developed an identity that differentiated itself — sometimes subtly — from the previous iterations. But for a decade, the foundation remained consistent: a balanced approach with an underrated rushing attack and creative utilization of running backs, a slot receiver with the quickness and agility of your neighborhood rabbit (from Wes Welker to Julian Edelman to Danny Amendola), and a 6-foot-6, 265-pound menace barreling down the middle of the field.
For the first time in 10 years, the Patriots head into training camp knowing they’ll be Gronk-less.
And that changes so much for the New England offense.
How will the Pats reconfigure their approach? That’s what the next few months are about. There’s competition across the board at the skill positions. There’s uncertainty. In some ways, this is a blank slate for offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who has proven to be adaptable and innovative over the years.
We don’t know exactly what the post-Gronk era will look like, but we can draw on the Patriots’ past experiences without Rob Gronkowski for possible hints.
The evidence suggests the Patriots will rely extremely heavily on Edelman.
Dating back three seasons, Edelman averaged 6.9 catches on a whopping 11.4 targets for 90.1 yards in games in which Gronkowski did not play.
Edelman’s averages with Gronkowski on the field dipped quite a bit: 6.1 receptions on 8.8 targets for 71.3 yards.
Over a 16-game schedule, Edelman’s numbers without Gronk translate to 110 receptions on 182 targets for 1,442 yards. That would put him among the league leaders in all three categories.
Is it possible for Edelman to deliver a career-best season at age 33?
Given the circumstances, maybe. In August Edelman will be two years removed from the torn ACL. He’ll enter the season in potentially better physical condition than he was in a year ago. To date, Edelman hasn’t shown many signs of regression, although it’s hard to predict exactly when a player’s athleticism will begin to wane.
While Edelman is certainly capable of carrying the offense, the Patriots probably don’t want to put too much on his plate. Ideally, some combination of passcatchers will emerge from the group of Phillip Dorsett, N’Keal Harry, Maurice Harris, Dontrelle Inman, Braxton Berrios, Josh Gordon and Demaryius Thomas (who will start on the PUP list along with Sony Michel). Surprisingly, James White’s numbers with Gronkowski and without Gronkowski are nearly identical, but perhaps Tom Brady will lean on White more often if no consistent No. 2 receiver has emerged early in the season.
Any contribution in the passing game from the tight end position would be a huge plus, too. In the five games Gronkowski missed in 2017 and 2018, Patriots tight ends combined to catch a total of five passes on 10 targets for 58 yards.
That’s partially why so much of the burden fell on Edelman when Gronkowski sat out.
Bottom line: There’s no replacing all the value that Gronkowski brought to New England. That’s not exactly an earth-shattering stuff. Gronk was a mauler in the running game, an adept pass-protector when called upon, and a game-breaking threat down the middle whose mere presence helped open up opportunities for others. His impact always showed up on the stat sheet, just sometimes in the individual stat lines of his teammates.
As for his own statistical impact, Gronk saw 6.4 targets per game over his final three seasons. It’s not an overwhelming number, but still a significant one for a tight end.