Pulling a rabbit out of the hoodie
Belichick may have big draft-day plans
MIAMI — When it comes to the Patriots, the rule of thumb should be to expect the unexpected. Bill Belichick has a history of zigging, when everyone else zags. That’s why one of his former coaches expects a bombshell trade on draft day.
Charlie Weis, who was Belichick’s offensive coordinator for the first three championships, has a feeling the Hoodie might pull a rabbit out of the hat, especially if Tom Brady isn’t re-signed.
And that rabbit won’t be Jarrett Stidham taking over the offense after one year behind Brady.
“I personally don’t think it will be Stidham. I think it’ll be a veteran guy (to replace Brady),” Weis said. “But I also wouldn’t put it past Bill to run all the way to the top of the draft, and go get one of the big boys. I wouldn’t put it past him.”
Weis, who has been doing daily broadcasts on radio row for SiriusXM NFL radio, had a specific “big boy” in mind. If he’s recovered from his hip surgery, and passes all the physicals, Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa checks off all the boxes.
“Just when you rule out that he’ll do something like that, that’s when he’ll do it,” said Weis. “All of a sudden Tua is your quarterback.”
Now, Weis says he’s not putting Tagovailoa or any of the other top quarterback prospects in the 2020 draft on the Patriots’ radar because he has inside information. It’s more a hunch, knowing the people involved.
And his hunch isn’t all that outrageous.
The thought of drafting one of the top quarterbacks isn’t totally outside the box. Even if Brady does return, landing his heir remains a priority, especially if there are questions about Stidham being the guy. Whether they move up from their draft spot at No. 23 to try and land one of the top prospects, or continue to take chances on quarterbacks later in the draft will be the biggest question.
Why Tua?
Weis watched him quite a bit, given his son Charlie Jr. was recently a coach with Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide.
“My kid was at Alabama a couple years. Nick’s program and Bill’s program are very similar, even though one’s in college, one’s in pros,” said Weis. “I think Tua would be able to slide right in there. He’s a natural leader. I love Tua, I really do.”
The problem with the Tua scenario, is Weis isn’t the only one infatuated with the Alabama quarterback. Tagovailoa could be the second quarterback off the board after LSU’s Heisman Trophy-winner Joe Burrow, perhaps going to the Dolphins at No. 5. That makes it difficult to jump up high enough on the board from their spot to land Tua. At the moment, they don’t have a second-round pick to use in a trade, but could have as many as three third-rounders with compensatory selections. They could also use future first-rounders, but with the Dolphins involved, the price will multiply.
If not Tua, they can certainly head up the board for a quarterback of their liking. Beyond Alabama’s “big boy,” there are several quarterbacks projected to go in the first round.
NFL Media analyst Daniel Jeremiah had four quarterbacks going in the top 15 in his first 2020 mock draft.
With Burrow likely headed to the Bengals with the first overall pick, and Tua heading off the board at No. 5 or earlier, Oregon’s Justin Herbert and Utah State’s Jordan Love are considered the other top first-round prospects.
The rationale for trying to land one of the top guns would be the Patriots don’t believe Stidham has what it takes to be Brady’s eventual replacement, whether it’s this year, or down the road.
Weis acknowledged he wasn’t the biggest Stidham fan, having seen him a few times in college at Auburn, before the Patriots took him in the fourth round last year.
“I watched the Southeast Conference regularly. It wasn’t like I was fired up about him coming out of college, but obviously, they liked him,” Weis said of Stidham. “So if they liked him, they saw qualities they liked.”
Assuming Belichick thinks Stid the Kid is a worthy successor, it’s possible he’ll need a little more time to develop, and more seasoning before attempting to assume the mantle.
In that case, Weis would have a veteran in the house. He likes the idea of bringing in Andy Dalton, whose days with the Bengals appear numbered.
“Bring in a guy like that, because maybe Stidham’s your guy, but not your guy yet,” said Weis. “Or, they might believe he’s moved far enough along. I just don’t know that.”
If Stidham’s not ready, and they don’t have Brady’s successor inhouse, the best course would be to keep No. 12 for at least another year, and make it work with the six-time Super Bowl winner, who is tracking toward free agency.
Forget Dalton, or any of the other not-so-appealing free agent options outside of Brady. The incumbent would make the most sense in that scenario. It’s just hard to know what Belichick is thinking about Brady, Stidham, or anyone else. He doesn’t tip his hand.
That’s why Weis won’t be shocked if Belichick moves up the draft board as high as possible with his trade chips, and stuns the NFL by landing Tagovailoa or one of the other top prospects.
At the very least, it’s an intriguing possibility.