After caucuses, Iowa belongs to Trump
Democrats fighting to be first out of the gate in Iowa face a sobering reality now that the caucuses are over: they’re probably going to lose the state in November.
Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton by nearly 10 points in Iowa in the 2016 election, and the president drew nearly 10,000 supporters there during a campaign visit last week. The crowd easily rivaled those that are showing up for Democrat Bernie Sanders.
While Democrats did make some gains in the 2018 mid-term election, some party leaders and strategists view the Hawkeye State as mostly red in 2020.
Much of Iowa remains white and rural — the bedrock for the Trump campaign.
Trump’s huge rally last week underscored the support he enjoys in the Heartland, a huge swath of America that Democrats have largely abandoned.
There’s a chance that Sanders or Elizabeth Warshire,
or whoever wins the 2020 nomination won’t even be back in the Hawkeye State to campaign in the general, ceding the state to Trump.
It’s a reality that the media sometimes forgets as it breathlessly reports on the huge, enthusiastic crowds the Democrats drew during the campaign.
“Joe had a crowd so small the other day that they set up a round table,” Trump said at his rally in Des Moines.
Ultra-liberal activists dominate the Democratic Party in Iowa, which is why Sanders was generally considered the favorite heading into caucus night.
But they make up only a small slice of the electorate in Iowa. Most Iowans don’t bother to show up for the caucuses, a fact that usually doesn’t get mentioned by the media covering the event.
Trump is poised to win Iowa’s six presidential electoral votes in November no matter who gets the nomination on the Democratic side.
The reverse is true in the next contest in New Hampren
which in the last few elections has turned bluer and bluer.
But Trump still isn’t conceding the Granite State, and will be making a stop there on primary eve next week — a deliberate, inyour-face move that he knows will drive the Democrats crazy.