Upside of Stid the Kid
Handing reins over to Stidham provides Pats financial flexibility
Every penny the Patriots spend on Tom Brady beyond the $13.5 million dead-cap hit if he leaves is a penny that could be spent giving Jarrett Stidham additional offensive weapons than the Pats could afford to give Brady.
In other words, giving Brady a one-year deal for $30.5 million would take $17 million out of the offensive-upgrades piggy bank.
So the decision isn’t as simple as determining which quarterback is better equipped to lead the Patriots into contention for a seventh Super Bowl title: the fresh, young body with a year of learning the Patriots’ offense or the veteran proven winner who eats, breathes and dreams the offense.
Other factors enter the equation, such as: Not so long ago, Brady made below-average receivers average, average ones above-average, above-average ones terrific. At this point in his career, so close to the finish line, Brady appears to have lost that quality. He’s not as accurate, and his patience for receivers not knowing the offense nearly as well as he does dwindles in lockstep with the amount of time he has left in his career.
Through no fault of his own — it’s not his fault he’s so beloved — the blame will always fall entirely on the pass-catchers when chemistry problems surface. So the storyline becomes that receivers brought onto the roster are busts when they don’t click with Brady.
First-round draft choice N’Keal Harry? Not fast enough and doesn’t know the offense. All his fault. Or so sings the chorus. Mohamed Sanu? Can’t get on the same page as Brady, not the other way around, of course.
So even if Brady takes less money, say $20.5 million, from the Pats than he thinks he can get elsewhere, it’s worth wondering if he can develop necessary chemistry with newcomers brought in with the savings.
Bill Belichick hides his hand as well as anybody in sports, so nobody really knows what he thinks he has in Stidham. Studying Belichick for tells on the subject is such a fruitless exercise that when he once referred to the QB as “Stid,” it was a stop-the-presses moment. Eureka! Bill likes Stid the Kid.
The real tell will come if Belichick gives Brady an offer he can refuse, doesn’t pursue a freeagent quarterback and drafts a backup quarterback in a late round, say Iowa’s Nate “The Great” Stanley in the sixth. Stanley, a three-year team captain, led the Hawkeyes’ pro-style offense to a 3-0 record in bowl games. (Not that it means anything given how inflated quarterback’s numbers are compared to 20 years ago, but Stanley threw 16 touchdown passes and seven interceptions as a senior and averaged 7.4 yards per attempt; Brady’s numbers: 16-6-7.5 as a senior at Michigan).
Going through a season with a quarterback tandem that has a total of four NFL pass attempts, one of them intercepted, obviously is a high-wire act, but it does have an upside: a bursting offensive-upgrade piggy bank.
By spending so little at quarterback, could the Patriots find a way to land both Cowboys wide receiver Amari Cooper and Falcons tight end Austin Hooper via free agency if they hit the open market? If so, they could use the draft to upgrade the offensive line and have a younger offense without any glaring weaknesses, unless, that is, quarterback becomes one.
Stidham showed enough in training camp and exhibition games to check one of the two leading boxes for any quarterback to curry Belichick’s favor. He’s accurate. As for whether he can make good decisions quickly, that’s tough to say for anyone until they play in games, but Belichick no doubt as an idea of how he thinks Stidham will shape up in that area.
Based on history, the most likely outcome of the Brady saga has the quarterback taking less money to play for the Patriots in order to free cap space. The oddsmakers envision him staying with the Patriots too.
One website, www.BetOnline.ag, recently posted odds on the proposition: What team will Tom Brady be on Week 1 of the 2020 regular season? The odds: Patriots (10/13), Titans (5/1), Raiders (6/1), Chargers (6/1), Colts (9/1), 49ers (10/1), Buccaneers (12/1), Bears (20/1), Cowboys (25/1), Dolphins (33/1).
The website also posted odds on the proposition: Patriots QB Week 1 of the 2020 regular season (if not Brady). The odds: Teddy Bridgewater (3/1), Ryan Tannehill (7/2), Marcus Mariota (5/1), Andy Dalton (6/1), Stidham (7/1), Derek Carr (8/1), Jimmy Garoppolo (10/1), Nick Foles (14/1), Philip Rivers (14/1), Dak Prescott (20/1), Jameis Winston (20/1), Joe Flacco (25/1), Cody Kessler (33/1).
If gifted $200, forced to spend half on one proposition, half on the other, and prohibited from betting on Brady staying with the Patriots, here’s how I’d put the money to work: Brady to the Titans; Stidham starting Week 1 for the Pats.