IN THE ‘DANGER ZONE’
Virus guru paints dire picture of Bay State’s near future
Massachusetts is not out of the “danger zone,” one of the nation’s top coronavirus data scientists warned, saying the peak is just over a week away and social distancing needs to ramp up.
Professor Christopher Murray, director of the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), told the Herald in a video conference Monday that people should not “ease up.”
Murray has quickly become a leading numbers guru who has been hailed by members of the White House Coronavirus Task Force for his modeling of the spread of COVID-19 from Wuhan to each state in the U.S.
When the Herald asked about where Massachusetts stands, Murray didn’t hold back.
“No, we don’t think Massachusetts is out of the danger zone,” he said. “There is some sign on the last data point that maybe deaths are coming down, but our model suggests” the worst could be yet to come.
His caution comes as a massive infusion of new data show hard-hit Italy and Spain are showing signs of leveling off. As of Monday night, 16,523 people in Italy had died from coronavirus; and 13,341 had perished in Spain.
In the U.S., 10,783 have died from COVID-19.
In Massachusetts, 260 people have died from coronavirus.
But Murray’s number of predicted deaths in the Bay State has jumped up considerably since last week.
The University of Washington researchers on March 31 had predicted 1,507 deaths in Massachusetts by early August. That estimate has now surged up to 8,254 deaths in Massachusetts.
The epidemiologists last week had also predicted 60 deaths as the peak day for Massachusetts deaths in mid-April. That projection has now jumped up to 373 deaths on April 18 — the day the virus could peak here.
The researchers last week had estimated a 1,179 ICU bed shortage in Massachusetts.
That estimate for the Bay State is now up to a 2,745 ICU bed shortage.
Also, the epidemiologists last week said the state would need 1,189 ventilators on the peak date. That estimate has increased to 2,569 ventilators needed.
It’s sobering news as Boston Mayor Martin Walsh and Gov. Charlie Baker urge every non-essential worker to remain at home and practice social distancing.
Murray, who was peppered with questions during his hour-long Zoom video news conference, said the virus has now peaked in “seven locations” in Italy and Spain. He called it “welcome news,” but he stressed his work is like a “weather forecast” that can change.
“We’re trying to do a public service. We’re trying to help public planners plan for the surge,” he said, adding his team does “feel the pressure” to get it right.
Cities from Boston to New York City, Los Angeles and New Orleans are all studying Murray’s work to brace for the onslaught of cases — and deaths.
“We certainly don’t believe people should ease up,” he said, using the opportunity to stress social distancing does work. “The potential for rebound is enormous.”