Mass. not ready

Johns Hopkins data shows too-high level of contagion

On the road to reopening, monitoring data such as the percentage of positive coronavirus tests will be crucial in guiding decisions for officials, and Massachusetts currently doesn’t meet health guidelines in testing, Johns Hopkins University data shows.

“This virus is the same as it was when we first started seeing the pandemic appear, it’s still a very transmissible virus,” said Dr. Tom Inglesby, director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

Johns Hopkins became a reliable source for coronavirus news with its COVID19 resource center which now includes a U.S. map and testing hub.

The World Health Organization advised governments that before reopening, the percentage of positive coronavirus tests should remain at 5% or lower for at least 14 days.

Massachusetts currently sits at a 10.6% positivity rate along with 25 other states that do not currently meet the WHO standard for reopening, according to the Johns Hopkins testing hub.

Beth Blauer, executive director of the Johns Hopkins University Centers for Civic Impact works on the global tracker and said in a Thursday webcast that the intent of creating a new U.S. map was to help officials make reopening decisions.

Six Massachusetts counties, including Middlesex, Suffolk, Essex, Worcester, Norfolk and Plymouth landed in the map’s top 50 counties in the nation with the most coronavirus cases.

Inglesby said spikes across the country are likely to occur at lower, institutional levels until there is a vaccine, which could cause some institutions to shut down temporarily while cleaning and diagnosing takes place.

There could also be surges on a more broad, state level, said Inglesby, “Governors would have a difficult choice to make and would need to reimpose certain levels of social distancing.”

Crystal Watson, a senior scholar with the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, said businesses looking to reopen should assess issues such as outdoor operating space, travel and how much close contact takes place at the business.

“There are measures that businesses can take to reduce that risk, they need to look at what modifications they can make,” said Watson.

Reopening schools, however, comes with a new set of risks as it is still unknown exactly how children transmit the virus.

“There is inherent risk in bringing people together in congregate settings indoors with children who are not very good at social distancing,” said Watson.

As economies reopen, the elderly should take extra precaution, said Inglesby, and focus on spending time outdoors if possible.

“The outdoors environment is a much safer option than having interaction in an indoor space,” said Inglesby.

NANCY LANE / HERALD STAFF FILE NOT PASSING THE TEST: A Mass. General doctor takes a sample from a person in Chelsea recently as part of coronavirus antibody testing that was done. Data from Johns Hopkins University puts the state at 10% positive tests for the coronavirus, too high still to move on reopening, they say.