COSTLY DROPS KEEPING PATS FROM HOLDING ON
With Stidham under center, drive-killing drops must stop
Drops are drive-killers. The 2019 Patriots are a prime example.
Players were guilty all across the board for failing to secure catchable balls.
Whether it was receivers, tight ends or backs, none of the pass-catchers were exempt.
They all had their issues holding on to Tom Brady’s passes, prompting the Patriots to finish with the secondmost drops (34) in the NFL last season.
While it’s great Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer have reportedly been working diligently with Patriots receivers, getting down routes and trying to establish chemistry with the group, the QB swill struggle if the dropsies continue in 2020.
Of course, the hope is, N’Keal Harry and Mohamed
Sanu, along with Jakobi Meyers, will have better seasons than last season.
Fingers are also crossed Julian Edelman will not hit the age wall, and will produce for Stidham as well as he did for Brady. And maybe, either Damiere Byrd or Marqise Lee will prove a steal.
Post-GOAT, that would be utopia for the Patriots offense.
The reality?
If the pass-catchers don’t cure their issues with drops, forget about utopia. Think more about having a hard time sustaining drives. Given all the drops last season, the Pats were in the middle of the pack when it came to converting on third down (38.3 %), a byproduct of all the botched reception attempts.
And, think about a secondyear quarterback, who’s thrown a total of four passes in the NFL, trying to take over the offense for a legend.
The tide has to turn, or else Stidham won’t have any more chance of succeeding than Brady did in 2019. Actually, it’s probably less. NFL Network analyst Brian Billick, a former Super Bowl-winning head coach with the Ravens, believes a continued problem with drops would be devastating for Brady’s successor.
“Brady went through it (with the drops), handled it, and his basic efficiencies could kind of overcome it,” said Billick, “but for Stidham, that’s a different proposition. That’s a lot to overcome for a young quarterback trying to establish himself, and it stops a drive. That puts a whole lot of pressure for them to convert on third downs, which Tom Brady could do, but Stidham still has to prove he can do that.
“It would compound the problem for a young quarterback if you continue on with those kinds of drops.”
According to Pro Football Focus, the chief offenders last season were Edelman (11 drops), Sanu (4), Sony Michel (4), Harry (3) and Meyers (3).
Looking back, one of the lasting images of the Patriots playoff loss to the Titans was a crucial drop by Edelman as Brady was driving the team late. With just over three minutes to go, trailing by one, an Edelman drop on secondand-4 on what should have been an easy wide-open catch proved a killer, as the Patriots ultimately had to punt on that gotta-have-it drive.
Harry also had a brutal drop during that 20-13 loss.
“Drops are kind of like sacks,” said Billick. “Bill Walsh was always a believer in that. It was, ‘Well, when do they happen?’ If a drop kills a drive like (Edelman’s in the playoffs), that’s tough. As it is, you’re going to have 12 or 13 possessions, and you’ve end
ed one on what was a makeable play. That’s hard.”
Even if they buck the trend, the Patriots are going to have a tough enough time putting up points, and generating offense without Brady. So the last thing Stidham or Hoyer can afford is having players fail to hold onto routine throws.
In an offense that lacks explosive players, an offense that needs to sustain long drives, drops spell doom.
“The small-ball that Tom was so spectacular at, so efficient at, having drops is hard to (deal with),” said Billick. “It’s hard to put together 8-, 10-, 12-play drives where you have a penalty, or a drop. That stymies a drive.”
Then the questions and scrutiny comes. Is the quarterback more at fault than the receiver? Is the QB to blame?
“Maybe he’s losing it, maybe he’s not as good. That’s what was happening to Tom Brady,” said Billick, “but with this kid, he doesn’t have the pelts on the wall, so to speak, to say, ‘No-no, we know who the problem is here.”’
Billick described the Patriots collection of receivers, outside of Edelman, as “kind of a pedestrian group.”
That’s not exactly flattering. But the point is, it’s one thing to have a pedestrian group, it’s another to have one that can’t hold onto the football.
When it comes to drops, though, it’s also important to factor in the number of targets, and drop percentage of the players.
Edelman’s collection of drops aren’t as drastic in that context. Out of 152 targets, 114 were deemed catchable by PFF. With 103 receptions, and 11 miscues, his drop rate was 9.6%.
Harry? Out of 31 targets, and 17 catchable balls, he whiffed on three, making his drop rate 17.6%.
The worst?
Michel with 4 drops on 19 catchable passes, or 21.1%.
We’ll see how Damien Harris does, because along with Rex Burkhead, the secondyear back figures to get a shot, especially with word that Michel recently underwent foot surgery, which is likely to delay his start.
Harris ran the ball, but also caught a lot of footballs at Alabama. It remains to be seen how sure his hands are on the pro level.
Meanwhile, the regulars with the surest hands last season were former Patriot Phillip Dorsett (30 receptions on 30 catchable balls), James White (79 receptions on 79 catchable balls) and Burkhead (30 receptions on 31 catchable balls).
Whatever the case, the Patriots have to improve across the board. The drops have to stop, especially if Stidham is the quarterback.
Said Billick, “Again, if you put that on a young quarterback, and you expect the same efficiency, it’s just a lot to overcome.”