Signing is all upside as QB has something to prove

Everybody does the same thing when the NFL schedule is announced. We look at the slate game-by-game and predict the regular-season W-L. Some of us geeks (ahem) will do this for the entire league. It’s why we need ESPN’s NFL Playoff Machine to go live way before Week 11 every year. Why not fire that thing up now? As soon as the schedule was announced I looked at three teams to predict their seasons. Two of them you’ll care about.

The one you don’t is the Dallas Cowboys. (Still America’s Team, by the way.) Caveat: I never bet on the Cowboys, first because gambling isn’t legal everywhere and therefore wrong. Also, I cannot trust my heart to listen to my brain. As Marsellus Wallace said, “Pride only hurts, it never helps.” If Jason Garrett was still the Cowboys coach, they might get 10 wins. He isn’t. Mike McCarthy is the Cowboys coach. I think they go 13-3.

Which means they’ll be in the hunt for NFC home field in the playoffs with another team we’re interested in: The Tampa (errr … Tompa) Bay Buccaneers. Outside of their opener in New Orleans, Tampa (errr … Tompa) has all their tough opponents at the Pirate Ship. They’ll win 13, maybe 14 games on the season.

And then there’s the Home 11.

In the Brady Era — starting in 2001 when they won their first Super Bowl — the Pats have never had a losing season, and have gone 11-5 or better 16 times. That’s an astonishing run. In fact, before 2001, the Patriots had never won more than 11 regular-season games, and only hit that peak five times in 40 years.

But Tom’s in Florida and with an unproven, untested Jarrett Stidham at the controls … that stretch of excellence is in danger. I figured they’d go 9-7, or maybe 8-8.

Enter one Cameron Jerrell (Cam) Newton.

Which Cam will they get? Healthy Cam — not even 2015 MVP Cam — means the Patriots win 11 or 12 games. And they’re probably getting Healthy Cam. The intel from Herald reporters Karen Guregian and Andrew Callahan says he’s ready. This isn’t a desperation lotto ticket like signing sad case Josh Gordon or head case Antonio Brown. Any team could have signed Newton months ago, and Bill Belichick’s clear comfort with Stidham was obvious when he didn’t rush to sign Newton or Jameis Winston or Philip Rivers, or take a flyer on a reclamation project like Marcus Mariota.

Then he didn’t select a QB or even give a hint he wanted to during the NFL Draft, so sure of his path that he let Nike the dog sit in. It was Stid the Kid’s job.

What changed? On one hand, he needed a steady hand that wasn’t Brian Hoyer. Hoyer’s the definition of a journeyman, in his age 35 season, with his seventh team, and 38 career starts (22 of those ending in losses). He’s not the future, and if free agent camp arms Brian Lewerke or J’Mar Smith are the answer, we don’t know the question, unless it’s “Which guy will be on the practice squad this year?”

So The Hoodie wanted Cam. Belichick doesn’t make a ton of mistakes, and he knows that there are a lot of factors that make Cam Newton worth the roll of the dice.

First, Newton will get top-notch coaching and attitude. His head coach won’t be shooting soda commercials. Cam’s been hurt a lot the last two years ... a bad shoulder, a foot injury. Now he has one of the best offensive lines in the game. Brady never had the mobility of Cam Newton, but he was smart and well-coached and knew a sack was a bad play — worse than an incomplete pass. Cam Newton averaged getting sacked about 35 times a season, and few QBs are as strong (6-foot-5, 245) or mobile as he is. Brady only got sacked 35 times or more four seasons out of 20 in Foxboro.

Oh yeah, one other thing: The teamfriendly, incentive-laden one-year deal fits the Patriots salary structure, and makes this a CONTRACT YEAR for Newton. Guys tend to play well in a contract year, to prove their worth. Cam will be motivated. A bad year, or an injury-filled year, and his career might be over. If he stinks, the Pats cut ties after the season. If he stars ...

One other thing. Cam’s a Heisman Trophy winner, a BCS National Champion, a No. 1 overall draft pick, Rookie of the Year, league MVP ... he’s not going to flinch being in the spotlight, being whoever follows Tom Brady.

In short, the deal is all upside. The worstcase scenario is Belichick does what he was fully prepared to do anyway, and play Stid the Kid. The best-case scenario is there will be more home playoff games in January.