How Pats can make deep run
Health, OL among keys to success
The Patriots’ road to the playoffs used to be straightforward: Get in line, and follow No. 12.
Tom Brady lit the way to 18 postseason bids over his 20 years in New England. His 90% career playoff rate was and is preposterous. For several reasons, the Pats’ odds of returning to the playoffs without him are now closer to 50/50.
Their schedule ranks among the toughest in the league. Brady’s replacement, Cam Newton, cannot carry a weapon-depleted offense by himself, as Brady found out last year. Plus, the Patriots’ competition in the AFC East is stiffer than it’s been in a decade.
Still, there is a path to the Promised Land. The Pats must fortify a few areas and, frankly, cross their fingers for four months. It won’t be easy, but the playoff path remains fairly clear.
Good injury luck
The NFL season could be described as 32 teams thrown into an octagon in September that’s reopened in January to see who’s left standing. The healthiest teams are then allowed to compete for a title, while everyone else is kicked out.
In the NFL, roster health is strongly correlated with winning. Naturally, there are hobbled exceptions, teams like the 49ers of last season, who reached and conquered the NFC playoffs despite several injuries. But the Patriots won’t be such an exception in 2020.
They’re too thin at too many critical positions to sustain a postseason run while suffering major injuries. There’s wide receiver, tight end, the defensive line, linebacking corps and free safety. All teams have weak spots, of course.
But arguably no contender this year can afford to tempt Lady Luck less than the Pats.
O-line dominance
As the edges of their roster crumbled this spring, the Patriots chose to save their hopes of competing in 2020 by doubling down on their remaining strengths.
They applied the franchise tag to left guard Joe Thuney, re-signed depth pieces and invested three draft picks on offensive linemen. In the secondary, the Pats brought back Devin McCourty, inked safety Adrian Phillips to a free-agent deal and selected Kyle Dugger with their first draft pick. If either position group underachieves this season, the Patriots are cooked.
Especially the offensive line.
By itself, this O-line can elevate the Pats’ pass and run game, particularly with a new quarterback and star-less group of running backs. All attention this summer will be paid to the hole at right tackle, despite the elite potential of the middle and left side. If center David Andrews returns to form, the Patriots could field four O-linemen who are either entering or enjoying their prime.
That’s exceedingly rare across the league. In New England, it is vital to a team’s hopes.
Rev the turnover machine
One of the reasons the Patriots defense regressed over the second half of last season was fairly predictable.
They were generating turnovers at an impossible rate, averaging more than three per game; which would have neared a league record in the modern era over a full season. That simply never happens, and over the last eight games, it didn’t.
Turnover rates are not predictive from year to year or half-season to half-season, meaning recent results do no indicate future events. Alas, for the Pats, they have to in 2020.
Creating takeaways can paper over significant holes in a defense. A lack of consistent pass rush or linebacker depth doesn’t factor into a given game’s equation if the offense keeps coughing up the football. The Patriots work on turnovers during every practice.
If they can transfer those results to the field on Sundays, they will compete again.
A starting wideout emerges
There’s no getting around this. The Pats need another viable receiving threat.
N’Keal Harry is the leading candidate to join Julian Edelman and Mohamed Sanu in the starting lineup. He’s currently busy crouching, loading up for a proverbial “second-year” leap. How high the 6-foot-3, 220-pounder reaches after whiffing as a rookie is anyone’s guess.
If Harry can’t clear the bar of basic competence, it’s up to free-agent addition Damiere Byrd, Jakobi Meyers or likely an undrafted free agent to provide some firepower.
The Pats struggled mightily on the outside last year, when teams successfully blitzed Brady knowing he couldn’t trust anyone beyond Edelman to separate from 1-on-1 coverage. Those situations now offer a preview of the season to come.
Pressure will be on Cam Newton or Jarrett Stidham to deliver throughout 2020, but they won’t be able to do it alone.
A Gilmore encore
He doesn’t need to hoist the Defensive Player of the Year trophy again, but a third straight All-Pro nod? That should be this season’s target for Stephon Gilmore.
Gilmore’s ability to lock down an opponent’s No. 1 receiver is elemental to the Pats’ defense. They structure entire game plans and coverages around him. His system mastery finally caught up to his physical gifts two years ago, when he opened one of the most dominant stretches by a cornerback in recent league history.
It’s possible, entering his age-30 season, Gilmore’s physical talents will slowly leave him this year. Nonetheless, he should rank again among the NFL’s five best 1-on-1 defenders, and if he can crack the top two, Gilmore will allow the Patriots defense to become what it’s been known since holding the Rams to a field goal in Super Bowl LIII: a championship unit.