Pats get timely reinforcements
Here comes the cavalry. The Patriots received a major boost Wednesday in their continued climb out of a COVID-19 hole, returning six players from various extended absences back to practice.
Right guard Shaq Mason, defensive lineman Byron Cowart and outside linebacker Derek Rivers were activated from the team’s COVID-19 reserve list. Cowart had tested positive for the virus 11 days earlier, while Mason and Rivers were more recently sidelined for precautionary reasons. Center David Andrews, linebacker Josh Uche and defensive lineman Beau Allen were also designated to come off injured reserve and can be added to the active roster at any point over the next 21 days.
The timing could not have been better.
Mason and Andrews might immediately stabilize an offensive line that’s been in flux. Without them, the Pats surrendered pressure on a season-high 38% of Cam Newton’s dropbacks last Sunday against Denver. At practice, Andrews’ right hand remained heavily taped, a sign he’s yet to fully recover from a broken thumb.
Rivers and Uche, a secondround rookie who’s yet to make his NFL debut, could provide instant pass rush as two of the Pats’ most athletic linebackers. The defense struggled to bother Broncos quarterback Drew Lock last week during a down game for top edge rusher Chase Winovich. Inside, Cowart and Allen would provide needed depth at defensive tackle, where the team is incredibly thin.
Wednesday’s practice marked Allen’s first as a Patriot, making an immediate return unlikely after three months away from the field.
Now three weeks into October, it’s clear the Pats’ kickoff against the 49ers looms as the team’s biggest of the season. At 2-3, they can hardly afford to skid Sunday, or it might trigger a slide down the standings.
Four of their next five games are slated against 2019 playoff teams. Then come the Cardinals, who own the NFL’s third-best point differential. Not to mention ensuing road trips to play the Rams and the suddenly surging Dolphins, who walloped San Francisco by 26 points a couple weekends ago.
Looking further ahead, the Pats hold a 42% chance of making the playoffs, per FiveThirtyEight’s postseason forecast, which is based on 100,000 season simulations following Elo ratings — a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results and quality of opponent. For reference, those odds reside in the same neighborhood as the 1-win Eagles.
From an historical standpoint, a loss Sunday would break more grave ground. The Patriots have not fallen two games below .500 since 2001. Only the rise of the greatest quarterback of all time could save them that season. Tom Brady III isn’t walking through the door.
Last Sunday, even an average passing performance would’ve saved the Pats from losing their first game under Bill Belichick without allowing a touchdown.
Instead, they turned the ball over three times and dropped to third in the AFC East.
“As a team, we need more time on the practice field than we’ve had recently, so hopefully we’ll start getting that this week, and that will be good for all of us,” Belichick said Wednesday. “I think we all need to work on fundamentals and awareness and anticipation and things like that. That’s true of every position, but obviously in the passing game — quarterbacks, receivers, backs, tight ends — there’s a lot of that.”
Naturally, the Patriots aren’t focused on the near past, the distant past or any type of future. They logged their second padded practice in three weeks Wednesday. They’ll restart there.
“We can’t look at the big picture. Where are we in this standings? How many games? We can’t do that,” Pats defensive captain Devin McCourty said. “The biggest and best we can do is just get better. If we get better, we give ourselves a better chance to win a football game.”
Whether the Pats win or lose Sunday, the score will be telling. Six games constitutes almost 40% of a regular season. That’s a large enough sample size to identify a team’s strengths, weaknesses and arguably potential, even accounting for interfering factors like a sudden change of quarterback one week and a lack of practice time the next.
Finally settled back into their weekly routine Wednesday, the Patriots savored a sense of normalcy. They know they’re playing catchup, both in the standings and to their on-field standard. It all comes down to Sunday.
Until then, they’ll draw strength from a message inscribed on the one sign that used to hang in their locker room. It read: “Every battle is won before it is fought.”
The quote, pulled from Sun Tzu’s The Art of War, speaks to the vital importance of preparation, a founding principle of the Pats’ dynasty. There are few books Belichick treasures more than the ancient military text. How well his players fight to prepare for Sunday’s battle, which could turn the war of their season, will be known only to them.
For now, fans can take comfort in this: thanks to their reinforcements, the Patriots’ odds of victory have most certainly improved.