4,613 new virus cases set one-day record high

State’s ‘trajectory’ going to ‘skyrocket’

Massachusetts health officials reported 4,613 new coronavirus cases Wednesday, the highest one-day count for the state since the virus arrived, as infectious disease experts worry it’s the start of a post-Thanksgiving surge.

The new tally is a 62% jump over Tuesday’s count of 2,845 cases.

“We could be seeing a post-Thanksgiving bump in cases,” said Boston University infectious diseases specialist Davidson Hamer. “It could also be that a lot more people are getting tested after Thanksgiving.”

The previous one-day high for the state was 3,079 cases on April 23, during the height of the spring surge.

“The trajectory is really increasing exponentially, and it’s going to skyrocket,” said Todd Ellerin, director of infectious diseases at South Shore Health. “The holidays back-to-back are national superspreading events, which is going to put us in very rough shape.

“We’re going to see an explosion of cases, which is already baked in after Thanksgiving,” he added. “There will be a significant surge in cases, hospitalizations and deaths, and there’s nothing we can do to stop that. But the behaviors we change now can affect life after Christmas.”

The state Department of Public Health on Wednesday also reported 46 more virus deaths, bringing the total state COVID-19 death toll to 10,824. The three-day average of coronavirus daily deaths has dropped from a peak of 161 in May to 28 now.

Of the state’s 234,232 total cases, at least 155,473 people have recovered. Health officials estimate there are 45,390 active cases across the state.

The seven-day weighted average of the state’s positive test rate — removing higher education institutions — has been climbing over the past week. That number at the start of September was 1.63%, but the rate is now at 6.85%; the rate was 5.55% Monday.

Statewide coronavirus hospitalizations on Wednesday jumped by 68 patients, bringing the COVID-19 hospitalization total to 1,259.

Of the state’s 10,824 total coronavirus deaths, 6,819 are connected to long-term care facilities.