Moving in the wrong direction
How everything went awry for the Pats offense this year
When it comes to the Patriots offense in 2020, the numbers don’t paint a pretty picture.
The unit was subpar in just about every category, save for running the football. They were 27th out of 32 teams in total offense. They had the 30th-ranked passing offense. They were 27th in points scored per game and 24th in the red zone (54.2% conversion rate). Quarterback Cam Newton? He was the 25th-leading passer. He ran well, as evidenced by his 12 rushing touchdowns. But he threw just eight TDs to 10 interceptions. No wonder it took the Patriots eight weeks to score an offensive touchdown in the first quarter.
Obviously, having such a woeful offense contributed to the Patriots missing the playoffs.
While it’s easy to point a finger at Tom Brady’s departure, it’s not that simple. The
Patriots offense was certainly better in 2019 with Brady, but not by leaps and bounds. There were so many other factors at play.
So how did it get so bad?
QB succession plan
Playing a quarterback over age 40, Bill Belichick had to know he was going to have to deal with Brady’s departure, whether due to retirement, or cutting ties with the legend.
Thanks to the type of contracts he kept offering Brady, basically going year-to-year after the GOAT turned 40 and not wanting to give him an extension even after Super Bowl wins, Belichick effectively pushed him out.
Given that, when Brady finally did leave, one might think Belichick would have been prepared. That’s not how it played out.
Jarrett Stidham was pumped up as the guy, but then something happened on the way to the 2019 fourthround pick succeeding Brady.
The Patriots must not have liked something, because they basically moved on from Stid the Kid before the season started. So Newton was signed in July, a few weeks before the start of training camp.
Sure, he was a prominent name, but given his extensive injury history, the former Carolina Panthers quarterback was a gamble. Veteran Brian Hoyer was already inhouse, presumably as a mentor and a fallback, but the Patriots rolled the dice that Newton would return to his MVP form.
It didn’t happen. Newton admitted to struggling learning the offense, or learning it sufficiently enough to feel comfortable. And it showed.
On Monday during his weekly appearance on “The Greg Hill Show,” Newton said he wasn’t daunted by replacing Brady, it was more learning a system the sixtime Super Bowl winner had been in 20 years.
Newton said that replacing Brady didn’t put any extra burden on him. It was the system, and having to try to learn it on speed-dial.
“People undermine that, and no disrespect to him, obviously I have the utmost respect for him, as we all do as quarterbacks, but I wasn’t just following him. I was following a system that he had the luxury of being in for 20 years,” said Newton. “Just imagine that. That’s just like as a student, you’re just given six months to take a final exam honestly that took 20 years to prepare, but you only have in essence five weeks to prepare for it and going through a process of four to five months to weekly prepare for it.”
Having Newton learn on the fly just wasn’t the best recipe for success.
Weapons shortage
The Patriots had been short on playmakers, and legitimate threats at the wide receiver and tight end positions in 2019.
The problem continued in 2020, and there wasn’t much done to fix that situation, even after the situation screamed for upgrades.
Really, if Brady had trouble producing, how much better would his replacement do if the same problem existed?
Now, Newton was bad enough. He was no prize when it came to throwing the football. But he wasn’t helped.
Where were the weapons? For the most part, they were MIA. Let’s start with the 2019 draft when the Patriots selected the wrong receiver.
Figures, the first time Belichick takes the plunge on a receiver in the first round, he picked the wrong guy. N’Keal Harry might ultimately prove to be serviceable, but he’s no star. See DK Metcalf, a second-round pick in the same draft, for that distinction.
The year before, the Patriots shipped a second-round pick to the Falcons for Mohamed Sanu before the trade deadline. That didn’t work out, and to no surprise, neither did Antonio Brown, who came in for a cup of coffee before making his way out of town.
The Patriots basically swapped out Phillip Dorsett for Damiere Byrd during the offseason. Byrd had his moments, but he doesn’t qualify as a top receiver.
Patriots receivers graded 26th in the league by Pro Football Focus. The tight ends were worse.
Rookie tight ends Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene, third-round picks, struggled all year, with the exception of Asiasi flashing Week 17. They were hurt by having no OTAs, early passing camps, or a preseason to learn the offense. But the pandemic excuse only goes so far.
Basically, they haven’t done much with the tight end position either before or after Rob Gronkowski initially retired.
Once again, it’s hard for an offense to succeed without having any weapons that scare a defense.
The troubled trio
Three of the best producers in the past — Julian Edelman, James White, Rex Burkhead — weren’t up to par for various reasons. And that hurt. Edelman’s season was cut short by injury.
He’s their best receiver, their best threat, and had put up career numbers (100 catches, 1,117 yards) playing hurt in 2019, only to see a chronic knee issue derail him in 2020.
Edelman was done after playing in just six games, leaving the receiving group even shorter on viable threats.
Burkhead, meanwhile, was their best, most consistent offensive player, but he was lost Week 11 after blowing out a knee.
The running back was having one of his best seasons.
White?
It’s hard to know how much family tragedy impacted him, losing his father in a fatal car accident, while his mother was also injured and sent to the hospital in the same crash.
For whatever reason, the longtime captain wasn’t the same reliable player he’s been.
Will Edelman even return and be the same player if he plays? Or will he retire?
Burkhead and White are free agents. So it’s possible all three won’t factor into the 2021 season.
But there’s little question the lack of usual production from this trio hurt the cause.