Rush to reload up front
Pats must fortify run defense through returners, free agency
Welcome to the Patriots’ road to rebuilding!
This week, we’re unveiling five steps the Pats can take to return to contention. Today, we continue with a look at the defensive line, where every starter is hitting free agency after a difficult season.
It was bad enough the Dolphins knocked the Patriots out of the playoff race in December, just a year after denying them a first-round bye.
It was bad enough Miami coach Brian Flores, a former Pats assistant, sat injured players who later claimed they could have played if needed.
But it was the way the Dolphins, one of the NFL’s worst rushing teams, did it.
Over a Week 15 win, they bullied the Patriots. Overpowered them. They ran straight at the Pats, dug a grave for their season hopes and tossed them in.
Having led at halftime and after the third quarter, the Patriots could have avoided an upset simply by finishing two drives in the end zone and outlasting Miami. Not only would a touchdown or two have padded said leads, it would have shielded their weakness the Dolphins exploited all day: run defense. Instead, Miami hammered away, perpetually unafraid of falling too far behind.
Now, run defense isn’t the premium it used to be in the NFL. Pro football is a passing game more than ever. But ranking dead last against the run, as the Pats did, per Football Outsiders’ opponent-and-situation-adjusted metric DVOA, is a great way to clear your calendar in January.
The Patriots must provide greater rush resistance in 2021. And the cupboard looks awfully bare.
Defensive linemen Lawrence Guy, Adam Butler, Deatrich Wise and Carl Davis are all free agents, as are outside linebackers John Simon, Shilique Calhoun and Brandon Copeland.
The Pats struggled in all facets of run defense, but particularly with setting a hard edge, making it more likely a few of the interior linemen return than the edge guys. Former thirdround rookie linebackers Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings appear primed for greater roles next season, while only Byron Cowart and midseason free-agent acquisition Akeem Spence remain on the D-line depth chart.
Among those free agents, Guy has already said he wants to return to New England. He’s a movable piece up front, and the Patriots’ top run defender. Guy should be prioritized.
The Pats should also aim to keep one of Butler and Wise, both players whose skill sets lean toward interior pass rushing over run stopping. Those skills are more valuable, so naturally they will command more on the free-agent market and could price the Patriots out. Davis, at 320 pounds, should be returned if possible, following his pair of concussions.
Of the edge players, Copeland offers the best value. He’s a career above-average run defender coming off an injury, who should sign a contract close to the veteran minimum. Meanwhile, Simon just endured his worst season in New England and perhaps as a pro. If Calhoun returns, he’ll find himself squarely on the roster bubble.
Having invested three draft picks into the linebacker position a year ago, it stands to reason the Pats will fill their remaining front-seven holes with free agents. (The presumed returns of Dont’a Hightower and nose tackle Beau Allen should help some, too, after Ja’Whaun Bentley proved unfit for a starting role in Hightower’s place, and Allen missed the year due to injury.)
In free agency, the Patriots do not spend lavishly on interior D-linemen or edge rushers. Last season, they ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in money spent on interior D-linemen, per Over the Cap. Over the previous four years, they ranked 28th, 22nd, 24th and 30th. As for the edge rushers, their last five rankings in positional spending have been 28th, 24th, 24th, 32nd and 18th.
The Pats believe they can consistently mine value at those positions, and largely — making three Super Bowls and winning two since 2015 — they’ve been right.
Therefore, the starting place for pegging potential Pats free-agent targets in 2021 is not market-setters like Leonard Williams or Jadeveon Clowney.
It’s players like Ravens defensive lineman Derek Wolfe, who drew interest from the Patriots last offseason and is currently playing out a one-year, $3 million deal. This season, Wolfe finished as the NFL’s third-best run defending D-lineman, per Pro Football Focus grades among players with at least 440 defensive snaps. Pittsburgh’s Tyson Alualu will also be a free agent after ranking sixth among D-tackles in run defense, per PFF. There’s also Buccaneers nose tackle Steve McLendon, a 35-year-old midseason trade acquisition who immediately helped fortify Tampa Bay’s run defense and shouldn’t command a large free-agent deal.
Outside, impending Jets free agent Jordan Jenkins sets a strong edge and Detroit’s Romeo Okwara could serve as a pass-rushing specialist.