No more passing on QBs for Pats
Time to commit to a signal-caller
Welcome to the Patriots’ road to rebuilding!
This week, we’ve unveiled five steps the Pats can take to return to contention. Today, we finish the series with a focus on the one position the Patriots nail down this offseason: quarterback.
It’s back to square one in Year Two of the post-Tom Brady era.
The Cam Newton experiment, while undermined by poor receiving help and a COVID-19 infection, was an on-field failure. If Newton returns to the Patriots, it will not be as the fulcrum of their future — a possibility that was always remote, but can now be ruled out. So who’s next?
That question may not have a public answer until late April, when the Pats are scheduled to pick 15th overall in the next NFL draft, their highest selection in more than a decade. In most years, the top-rated quarterbacks are long gone by then, sucked into the vacuum that is the top 10, where teams annually select and/or trade up to acquire the next face of their franchise.
Lucky for the Patriots, this year’s quarterback class is regarded as one of the richest in recent memory. But do the Pats agree?
That is a question only they can answer, and it will likely be a slow reveal through late April, given the shallow class of free agents ready to sign in March. The odds of the Patriots landing Dak Prescott — or any other viable free-agent starter — are about as low as them drafting Trevor Lawrence.
Though, the Pats would be smart to sign a veteran stopgap, perhaps Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jacoby Brissett or Tyrod Taylor. Not only is their quarterback room void of experience now, with Newton and Brian Hoyer on the market, but a player like Fitzpatrick could hedge against a big bet in the draft. And that’s the exact kind of bet the Patriots need to make.
Because the top 10 of the draft is the only place in the world where elite quarterbacks are found with any kind of regularity. At least six teams picking ahead of the Pats could draft a new face of their franchise this year. Before they gather intel on those teams and determine the cost of a potential trade, the Patriots must determine who among the first-round quarterbacks available suits them best.
Their options are Ohio State’s Justin Fields, BYU’s Zach Wilson, North Dakota State’s Trey Lance and Alabama’s Mac Jones. Then, go get him.
The Pats should not approach quarterback like most other positions, where they hunt for bargains or wait around for the best available prospect. The value of a good, young quarterback is baked into his contract. A first-round rookie contract affords the team four to five years of control at a significant discount. As soon as a quarterback develops into a top-20 starter, he becomes an immense bargain.
Because of that structure, all the Patriots need to do is nail the pick. Easier written and said than done, of course.
The draft remains a crapshoot, but hunting for bargains, as Newton was, at the game’s most pivotal position will only lead to more disappointing returns. The Pats can spend with discipline at other positions to fortify their present and go all-in with the draft to secure their future; admittedly a microscopic needle to thread.
But that’s the position the Patriots have put themselves in, saddled with an aging roster and uncertainty at quarterback after years of bad drafts and no clear succession plan for Brady.
Lastly, the Pats could absorb Carson Wentz’s contract in a trade struck after June 1, when the Eagles’ penalty for dealing Wentz would greatly diminish. Then again, do the Patriots want to guarantee $25.4 million to a reclamation project, even if none of the remaining money in his four-year extension is guaranteed? Probably not.
But if they do silently wade through the offseason again, without a clear and obvious plan at quarterback, dealing for Wentz — or another veteran on a massive contract — is probably why.