What to know as free agency begins
Patriots are flush with cash, but how will they spend it?
Ready, set, sign.
NFL free agency kicks off at noon with a two-day “legal tampering” period, a soft opening for the new league year that officially begins Wednesday. Per league rules, teams can begin initiating contract talks with free agents and reach verbal agreements in this window. But the truth is the those conversations have long been underway.
Expect deals to be reported moments after the legal tampering window opens, perhaps even a few involving the Patriots.
As reports and contract figures fly, here are five things to know.
1. Pats are better positioned than they were last week
Over the past week, the Patriots traded away one offensive tackle, added another and re-signed Cam Newton.
All together, the Pats sacrificed roughly $5 million in cap space to bolster their O-line and roster a quarterback they can point to when free-agent wideouts ask who would pass to them next season.
Acquiring Trent Brown and convincing him to restructure his massive contract will finish among the shrewdest moves of the Pats’ offseason. Brown is a 6-foot-8, 380-pound Pro Bowl talent hungry to prove himself yet again, who should keep the Patriots among the NFL’s best power running teams. He projects as a clear upgrade over Marcus Cannon — who was dealt to the Texans Sunday — and should allow Michael Onwenu, an unheralded star, to replace Joe Thuney at left guard.
The Pats will soon lose Thuney to free agency and could nonetheless field a better O-line next season.
Now, the impact of Newton’s
return as a free-agent attraction is likely overstated, according to league sources. Newton’s struggles were nationally televised last year, so no one missed his repeated throws in the dirt, even if they were balanced out by 12 rushing touchdowns and positive passing performances over an upand-down year. But he’s an indisputable upgrade over Jarrett Stidham, and the freeagent alternatives at quarterback didn’t appeal to the Patriots.
So, Newton will make backup money, offer starter upside and temporarily fill a glaring roster hole the Pats couldn’t afford while recruiting free-agent wide receivers. Another win.
2. The market is incredibly fluid
In normal years, the best free agents come off the board because teams have hit them with a franchise tag. In recent days, those players have taken themselves off the market.
Buffalo linebacker Matt Milano, Tampa Bay linebacker Lavonte David and Packers running back Aaron Jones all re-signed with their respective teams last week. Granted, all three came from stable contenders motivated to keep them, but the NFL’s decreased salary cap has created unprecedented market uncertainty and caused some players to steer toward safer waters. Meanwhile, some front offices are still shedding contracts to get under the cap before Wednesday.
Therefore, projecting how a given team, player or position group will perform in the market has never been more difficult, except to say overall interest will be depressed. So, if the Patriots strike a big deal early, it’s not necessarily an indication they’ll continue to pursue top-tier free agents. If they’re quiet, it could mean they’re lining up several mid-level deals after getting a better gauge of where their top targets stand.
Often, the best free-agent deals teams reach come late in the week when a player’s market has depressed, which is why the Patriots typically wait out the first waves of free agency. But given their cap situation — armed with roughly $55 million in cap room, third-most in the NFL — and the unique market conditions, it’s anyone’s guess how or when they’ll spend.
3. Big deals don’t promise big wins
Public research has recently caught up to what’s been known privately to the NFL’s best front offices for years: free-agent spending correlates with losing.
Every March, the highestspending teams more often than not spend themselves straight into the ground. Naturally, fans should be excited about what the Patriots can do with their cap space.
But if they cut a couple massive checks right away, brace for pain.
Value is still the name of the game in March. The Patriots need the free agents they sign to meet or outperform the value of their contracts or else they’ve wasted precious spending power with an already hollow roster. The odds of a player beating out his contract decrease the higher he ranks on his position’s list of highest-paid.
It’s why Tom Brady’s below-market contracts were the annually the best deals in sports. Brady was a virtual guarantee to outperform out his contract and therefore provide a discount at the game’s most expensive position, which freed up money for the Pats to spend elsewhere. Having already signed Newton to a teamfriendly deal, the Patriots have maintained that advantage, but still need to be careful with their spending as they build a team around him in a way they didn’t need to with Brady.
4. Don’t forget about the trenches
For all the attention paid to the wide receiver and tight end positions in New England the past few weeks, another deserves a few minutes of your time: defensive line.
Pats defensive linemen Lawrence Guy, Adam Butler, Deatrich Wise and Carl Davis are all set to hit free agency. It would behoove the front office to make significant upgrades to its front seven, which was responsible for the league’s worst run defense last season. But letting all four walk players would leave the Pats starting from scratch.
Guy is likely to be prioritized first, followed either by Wise, the team’s most effective pass rusher on a persnap basis, or Butler.
Offensively, center David Andrews is the team’s clearcut No. 1 player to re-sign. If Andrews walks, the Pats are left with Marcus Martin and Najee Toran at center. Who? Exactly.
On Sunday night, the Bills re-signed center John Feliciano to a 3-year, $17 million contract. Andrews is appreciably better than Feliciano, so his price should have only have gone up, considering after Feliciano was projected to sign for $4-5 million per year. As a longtime captain who’s made New England his home, Andrews would normally project as a candidate to sign for a hometown discount.
But considering Feliciano’s deal, the Pats’ considerable cap space and burning need to keep him, Andrews just might cash in.