Drop in Baker’s approval could stain him and Polito
Gov. Charlie Baker’s sinking approval ratings amid the coronavirus pandemic could hurt his chances at a third term or even torpedo a possible run by Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito, but strategists say there’s still plenty of time to right the ship.
The perennially popular governor’s approval rating has tanked since August, according to a new poll from UMass Amherst/ WCVB that showed just 52% of Massachusetts residents approve of his job performance compared to 78% in the same survey last summer.
At the same time, the percentage of those disapproving of Baker’s work as the state’s top executive jumped to 39% from 20% in August.
“This poll could be the opening of Charlie Baker’s potential political obituary,” UMass Lowell pollster John Cluverius said. “But who knows where we’ll be in six months when almost everyone is vaccinated.”
Analysts say the storm of criticism Baker’s weathered over the state’s rocky vaccine rollout now appears to be denting his “Teflon” coating, just weeks after a February survey from MassINC Polling found the governor’s approval rating was holding steady over 70%.
“The trouble is, COVID isn’t going away anytime soon, so Baker’s going to be dealing with it for months, if not years,” Democratic strategist Dan Payne said. “His tears can’t wipe away his responsibility.”
And that culpability could transfer to Polito should Baker step aside and the lieutenant governor make a run for the top job — opening her up to intense challenges from Democrats and potentially even a primary from the right with former U.S. Senate hopeful Geoff Diehl mulling a bid.
“Her fate is entirely tied to Baker and Baker’s approval rating,” Cluverius said. “If Baker’s approval rating is below 50% on Election Day 2022, it’s highly unlikely that either he or Karyn Polito could win the governorship.”
Payne agreed, saying Polito’s a “virtual unknown.”
Despite Baker’s sagging favorability, the Republican incumbent still led potential Democratic challengers in hypothetical matchups in the UMass Amherst/WCVB poll. Baker edged state Attorney General Maura Healey, former Congressman Joseph Kennedy III, state Sen. Sonia Chang-Diaz, Harvard University professor Danielle Allen and declared candidate former state Sen. Ben Downing — a sign that this may be “more like a hiccup than a crisis,” Cluverius said.
Baker spokeswoman Sarah Finlaw defended the governor’s performance, saying Massachusetts “is a nationleading state in getting COVID-19 vaccines to residents, and Governor Baker remains focused on executing this massive program, reopening our economy safely and getting kids back into schools.”