Virus cases up after declining for weeks
Docs blame variants, eased restrictions and vaccine optimism
Coronavirus case counts are on the rise in Massachusetts after weeks on the decline as more contagious variants circulate, restrictions ease and people gather amid vaccine optimism, infectious disease docs tell the Herald.
The case tallies are ticking up during the COVID-19 vaccine rollout, while a significant majority of the state’s population is still not vaccinated and won’t be for months.
“We’re close. We can see the light at the end of the tunnel, but we’re not there yet,” said David Rosman, president of the Massachusetts Medical Society. “So peoples’ inclination to gather and take off their masks is too early. If we just hold on for another month or two, then we can be entirely clear of this.”
The state’s case counts, while rising, are significantly lower than at the start of the year when the average was 6,240 cases per day.
Single-day case tallies have dropped dramatically since then, but have ticked up recently along with the positive-test rate. The average case counts for the last week of February were 1,523 cases, followed by 1,378 in the first week of March and 1,362 during the second week of March.
But in the last week, the average case counts rose to 1,566 infections per day. Meanwhile, the number of high-risk “red zone” communities increased for the first time in several weeks, and the estimated active case count started climbing.
The rise in cases could be driven by the easing of state restrictions and more infectious variants, said Boston University epidemiology professor Matthew Fox.
“As people see fewer cases they relax and take more risks than they would at the time when they are seeing high rates,” Fox added.
Massachusetts relaxed restrictions further on Monday, entering Phase 4.
“I think we are opening up just a bit too early,” Fox said. “As vaccinations increase, deaths will start to come down and as long as the new variants are not more lethal or able to evade the vaccines, then we can open up and see cases increase a bit without seeing deaths increase.
“But we are not quite there yet, so I’d like to see us wait a few more weeks to get more shots delivered and more immunity in the state,” he added.
The worst of the pandemic is in the rearview mirror, according to Todd Ellerin, director of infectious diseases at South Shore Health, but he predicts more cases, hospitalizations and deaths in the coming weeks.
“I’m concerned about us taking our foot off the brake and accelerating when cases are leveling off and even potentially increasing,” Ellerin said. “This is not the time to rip off our masks and congregate in large crowds.”