HOW CORA & CO. RETURN TO PLAYOFFS
How will/can the Red Sox make the playoffs in 2021? Chaim Bloom wasn’t exactly convincing when he said he thought these Red Sox could be a playoff team earlier this spring, but if everything breaks right, he knows it can happen.
After a disastrous 2020 season, the Red Sox return to Fenway Park this week to begin the 2021 season; expectations are low. FanGraphs is giving Alex Cora’s group just a 33.9 percent chance of making the playoffs, with its projected win total at 84.3.
There’s little doubt that this Red Sox team will be better than last season’s train wreck. They made some solid offseason additions, Cora is back and the group seems motivated to turn around last year’s embarrassment. But will it be enough for the Red Sox to return to the playoffs for the first time since winning the World Series in 2018?
Here are five things that need to happen for the Red
Sox to make it to October:
1. Eduardo Rodriguez must have a strong season as the ace.
It was last February, fresh off his breakthrough 2019 season, that Pedro Martinez told the Herald he thought Eduardo Rodriguez could win the Cy Young in 2020. We all know what happened next, as the pandemic delayed the season, Rodriguez caught COVID-19 and then suffered through myocarditis. He’s fully healthy now, and after a strong spring, Cora named him the Opening Day starter, although he been scratched from that with what’s been described as a “dead” arm.
With Chris Sale out until probably at least July and likely a non-factor this season, the Red Sox need an ace to lead their staff, and Rodriguez showed he was capable two years ago. The Red Sox don’t need Rodriguez to be a Cy Young candidate, but if he can give them around 30 starts and something around 160-170 innings with an ERA under 4, that will be a significant and necessary boost if the Red Sox are going to be anywhere near the playoff picture.
2. The starting rotation needs to stay healthy.
This is obvious for any playoff hopeful, but especially true for these Red Sox, which has health and injury concerns at the top of its staff. Rodriguez’s case is obvious. Though he has looked strong this spring, and expects a full workload this season, there is still a level of uncertainty after missing a full year with myocarditis, a health condition without prior examples of athletes returning from. Rodriguez has yet to have any setbacks this spring, and there are no concerns going into the regular season. Nathan Eovaldi and Garrett Richards, the No. 2 and 3 starters, also present some injury risk. Eovaldi missed most of the 2019 season with an elbow issue, and though he didn’t have any arm-related injuries last season, he still missed two weeks with a right calf strain, so he’s still yet to get through a full season with the Red Sox. Richards, who signed a one-year, $10 million deal with the Red Sox, had Tommy John surgery in 2018, and has only started 13 games since the start of 2019. The last time he pitched a full season was in 2015, when he made 32 starts. If the top three each pitch close to a full season, pitching should be in good shape.
3. J.D. Martinez and Rafael Devers have to bounce back.
Though it was a short sample size, Martinez and Devers didn’t look much like themselves at the plate in 2020 and are both eager to return to an elite level and carry the order again. Martinez hasn’t had the best spring, but he notoriously doesn’t like spring training and probably isn’t too concerned with the results as he finetunes his swing and his approach. Devers, too, hasn’t been strong in the spring, but has still shown some pop.
Martinez is motivated to return to his AllStar form, saying at the beginning of camp that he has a chip on his shoulder after coming into last year’s shortened campaign woefully unprepared. If he and Devers return to 2019 levels, an already good and deep lineup can be the best in baseball.
4. Cora will have to be influential.
Bloom rehired Cora as the manager, taking into deep consideration the effects of the cheating scandal that suspended him for an entire season, but ultimately felt like he was the right guy to lead this group moving forward. But this is far from the team Cora inherited in 2018, when he led them to a record-setting championship season. The manager will need to squeeze everything possible he can from this group to get them to deliver above expectations.
One thing is clear: the players wanted Cora as their manager, and his return has created energy during camp. How it translates to results on the field remains to be seen, but he is already making his mark on this roster. He’s brought in guys he’s familiar with in Kiké Hernández and Marwin Gonzalez who bring versatility, and along with new addition Hunter Renfroe, he has a group that’s playofftested. Cora has his own ideas how he’s going to use a deep and experienced roster, and if they work, they might just find themselves sneaking into October.
5. The Red Sox must perform better against the division.
Cora understands how much the Red Sox have struggled against the AL East over the last two seasons, as he experienced it in 2019 and watched it from afar last year. After going 52-24 against the division in 2018, the Red Sox are 49-67 over the last two seasons. That includes a 16-42 mark against the Yankees and Rays, a number that needs clear improvement if the Red Sox want to contend in the division and for a playoff spot.
“I know the odds are stacked, I don’t want to say against us, but the competition in this division is stiff,” Bloom said earlier this spring. “It’s always stiff. This is the American League East. That’s how it works around here. I’ve been in this division a long time and it’s always good. We know our competition is going to be really good.”