WHO’S THE PATS BEST PICKUP?
The Patriots’ free-agent spending spree was all about the numbers. Eight players signed in the first 24 hours.
More than $140 million guaranteed.
Upwards of $300 million committed in fresh new contracts.
For now, the number is one.
Who was the Pats’ No. 1 signing this offseason?
It’s clear linebacker Matthew Judon and tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith were the three best players the Patriots added. Henry and Smith will instantly upgrade the offense, while Judon provides a needed boost to the pass rush. However, all of them also commanded large contracts. which carry larger risk.
So could another player who also filled a need but at a much lower cost, like wide receiver Kendrick Bourne, be considered a better signing? The 25-year-old wideout is coming off a career year in San Francisco.
But if his ceiling is a quality No. 3 receiver, can he make enough of a difference to really be worthy of consideration?
The Herald’s Patriot beat writers debate.
GUREGIAN: I’m going with Jonnu Smith. There’s a reason the Patriots came out swinging, and set the bar with his 4-year, $50 million deal with $31.25 million guaranteed. He’s one of the best in the league at a position the Patriots desperately needed to upgrade. Save for the last two seasons, it’s the position the offense has revolved around during the past decade. And while Hunter Henry also factors into the equation, Smith rises above because of his game-breaking ability. He’s explosive with the ball in his hands. The Patriots haven’t had playmakers with his ability in the offense for quite some time. He’ll make any quarterback look better.
CALLAHAN: I gave the Smith signing an “A” in free agency, and I stand by it. The Pats needed a tight end. But top-3 guaranteed money for a guy who’s never had more than 41 catches or 450 yards? Bourne ranks first for me. Barely a third of his 3-year, $15 million deal is guaranteed. There’s no risk here for the Patriots. Bourne’s box-score stats belie how good he’s been. Per Next Gen Stats, he ranked among the NFL’s leaders in separation last year and outperformed his expected yards after catch by more than a full yard. A diamond in the rough paid like a marble.
GUREGIAN: I know top-3 guaranteed money is a lot, but Smith is still only 25 years old. By the end of that deal, $15 million might not be an outrageous cap hit for one of the best tight ends in the game. And let’s take a look behind the numbers and statistics. In 2019, Smith’s OVM (Offensive Value Metric) grade of 44.32 made him the highest-graded player in the NFL at any position. Quarterbacks also have a 112.3 rating when targeting him. He’s also a bonafide red zone threat. While I believe Bourne might be a sleeper hit in the Patriots offense, it’s hard to ignore a known entity who is still an ascending player.
CALLAHAN: The problem is all that hinges on a big “if”
— if Smith becomes one of the NFL’s best tight ends. He’s not even top 10 right now. His overall PFF grade last year — not in 2019 — was roughly on par with Bourne’s, who’s also 25. Bourne instantly upgraded their receiving corps at an excellent price and will face minimal competition for snaps. He’ll eat up targets, both outside and in the slot. Meanwhile, Hunter Henry’s presence will offset some of Smith’s receiving production, and unlike most of the other free-agent deals, the Pats are stuck with him for at least three years.
GUREGIAN: There’s no “if” about what the Patriots offense has revolved around in the past, and will be the focus once again. It’s the tight ends. Just by virtue of the position, Smith is more important, whether it’s in the passing game, or running game. He’s also a good blocker. And, it doesn’t matter if Smith and Henry take away from each other’s production, the point is the production. And their presence is going to benefit everyone across the board, including your man, Bourne. Smith is more of a dynamic presence. He’s going to draw attention, and he’s also going to make big-time plays whether Cam Newton’s the quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, or whomever.
CALLAHAN: And if he never tops 600 or 700 receiving yards in a season, which would mark a career high, will that represent value on his top-3 contract for guarantees? No. Speaking of Garoppolo, despite catching passes from his backups in 10 of 16 games, Bourne reached 667 yards last season for San Francisco. He managed a career year averaging nine yards per target, despite being surrounded by lesser talent. Only two Pats receivers who played an entire season have averaged nine yards per target the past three years — including the 2018 Super Bowl run! Signing Bourne to a no-risk deal was an outright steal.
GUREGIAN: Well, to me, assessing the No. 1 free agent signing, which is the point of this exercise, implies impact, over the best deal. In that context,
Smith will boost a sagging offense with his talent, and his sheer presence as a differencemaker. Bourne projects as a nice complementary piece to the wide receiver room. He’s not a No.
1 receiver no matter how much of a “steal” he is, or how much risk he carries. He’s a good signing. Smith, meanwhile, was a vital signing. Tight end production has been nonexistent the past two years. Going from zero, to having a defense pay attention to any of the Patriots tight ends, is huge. And, in an offense-driven league, it’s beyond huge. He might even help make your guy a star. Without him, and now the collective tight end room, that might not be possible.
CALLAHAN: Right, the collective. The significance of Smith’s signing diminished the moment they added Henry because the tight end room as a collective will carry them — not Smith himself. He’s a player who had fewer catches and receiving yards than Bourne last year and is now commanding more than six times the guaranteed money. Sure, Smith is better overall, but the underlying numbers about his separation and yards after the catch indicate Bourne will soon produce at a much higher level. His signing, when including the money and production, is the best deal the Pats struck in free agency.