Virus deaths expected to top 600,000 by July
Coronavirus deaths in the United States are projected to top 600,000 by July 1, but vaccines will save at least 50,000 lives by then, according to the latest COVID-19 forecast from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.
Daily coronavirus cases in the United States are increasing and daily deaths have stayed constant, the forecast shows, with 61,000 additional coronavirus deaths expected from now until July 1 which will mark 609,000 Americans lost to COVID-19.
As variants continue to spread, daily reported cases in the last week increased to 58,600 per day on average compared to 54,600 the week before and the death rate is greater than four per million in several states including Massachusetts.
It’s not all bad news though, as vaccines continue to provide a light at the end of the tunnel.
“We are heading in the right direction, the only negative is our behavior,” said Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington in Seattle, citing coronavirus fatigue and the increased desire to socialize.
In the U.S., about 70% of people say they would accept or would probably accept a vaccine, and the
IHME forecast projects that 186 million people will be vaccinated by July.
Between now and July, vaccines will save about 50,000 lives, not including the lives saved through vaccination that has already occurred.
Mokdad said daily infections are projected to taper off the second week of April and deaths are expected to decline in early May.
In Massachusetts, more than 85% of people are open to getting a vaccine, the highest of any state, and about 12% of the population has already been infected with coronavirus.
Mokdad said mask-wearing remains high in the United States and vaccination continues to ramp up. He said by mid-April or early May, vaccine supply with outweigh demand and daily vaccine doses administered across the country will reach up to five million.
However, Massachusetts and the country at large are still locked in a peak of high case counts, said Mokdad, which is when people tend to improve their adherence to public health measures.
But once trends improve, “Americans misbehave,” said Mokdad, which leads to a rollercoaster effect in cases.
Public health officials will continue to monitor variant activity and its impact on vaccination as Americans are advised to stick with public health precautions.