Decade of futility on draft day
More misses than hits the last 10 years
There was a time Bill Belichick’s batting average with his top picks was something to boast about.
He seemed to hit a home run every time out, no matter if he chose in the first round or even the second, if that wound up being his opening pick.
Richard Seymour (2001), Ty Warren (2003), Vince Wilfork (2004), Logan Mankins (2005), Jerod Mayo (2008) and Devin McCourty (2010) are just a few of Belichick’s best top draft selections from his first decade as head coach and de facto general manager of the Patriots.
The last decade? More misses than hits. We’ll see what happens with this year’s pick, No. 15 overall. The stakes are pretty high given all the money spent in free agency, and not wanting losing records to become the norm in New England.
Patriots owner Robert Kraft also took a not-so-subtle jab at Belichick yielding poor results in recent drafts, and hoping for better results with what he described as a new approach.
Belichick’s last 10 top picks have been more bust than boon. Unlike the first decade, which was littered with Pro Bowl players, the past decade has only netted a couple of worthy picks. That doesn’t bode well for sustained success. With that in mind, here’s a closer look at the last 10 top picks by the Patriots.
Nate Solder (2011): The Patriots took Solder 17th overall in the first round, the highest first round selection they’ve had until this year. With Matt Light nearing retirement, Belichick needed to find Tom Brady’s next blind-side protector. Solder, a 6-foot-8, 325-pound hulk out of Colorado, was the pick. After playing right tackle to start, Solder eventually took over for Light on the left side and did a good job keeping Brady clean during seven seasons with the Pats. He held down the fort for two Super Bowl champions. Overall, a solid pick.
Chandler Jones (2012): The Patriots had two first-round picks, No. 27 & 31, and moved up twice, first selecting Jones at No. 21 overall, then Dont’a Hightower at No. 25. It’s rare to see Belichick move up the board, but both proved to be great picks, with Jones flourishing even more after being traded to Arizona, where he’s been a two-time All-Pro at outside linebacker. He’s developed into one of the top sack artists in the NFL. Hightower, meanwhile, has been the defensive backbone and leader of three championship teams.
Jamie Collins (2013): The Patriots had the No. 29 overall pick, but traded it to Minnesota. Their first pick came in the second round, 52nd overall. Collins’ athleticism and physical gifts were off the charts. The linebacker wound up having two stints with the Patriots. He was part of one championship team, making eight tackles in the win over Seattle in Super Bowl XLIX. Considering where he was taken, a very good pick.
Dominique Easley (2014): The Florida product arrived as the 29th overall pick. He stands as one of Belichick’s worst firstrounders, released after just two seasons. Picking late in the first, the Patriots rolled the dice and took a gamble on the defensive tackle, who had a couple of bad knees. They needed someone to eventually help replace Vince Wilfork, who left in 2015, but Easley wound up on injured reserve both seasons he was with the team. He played just 22 games. Bottom line: terrible pick.
Malcolm Brown (2015): The defensive tackle was the last pick (32nd overall) in the first round. Once again, the Pats were hoping to plug the middle of the defensive line, following Wilfork’s departure. He was part of two Super Bowl-winning teams, and held down the position, but the Patriots obviously thought they could do better, not picking up the fifth-year option on his rookie deal. He wasn’t the worst choice, but not a great one, either.
Cyrus Jones (2016): The Patriots first-round pick was forfeited (Deflategate) so their first pick was made in second round, No. 60 overall. Jones, a cornerback and return specialist out of Alabama, was the choice. He never developed into a starting-caliber player. He had issues holding on to the football as a returner, committing five turnovers. He also had little to no impact as a cornerback, and was waived in 2018. Not a good pick, even in the second round.
Derek Rivers (2017): During this draft, the Patriots wound up dealing their first (to New Orleans for WR Brandin Cooks) and second-round (to Carolina for DE Kony Ealy) picks. Rivers, a defensive end out of Youngstown State, was their first choice in the third round, 83rd overall. He had an injury-plagued career, and when healthy had trouble cracking the lineup. He was waived last year. Another thumbs down.
Isaiah Wynn (2018): The Patriots landed the 23rd overall selection after trading Cooks to the Rams. They used it on Wynn, an offensive lineman out of Georgia. The Pats also used their own firstround selection on running back Sony Michel (31st overall). Wynn has primarily been used at left tackle, taking over for Trent Brown in 2019. He didn’t play his rookie year after tearing an Achilles tendon during a preseason game. He also missed part of his next season with turf toe. In 2020, Wynn was placed on IR after Week 11 with a knee injury. When not injured, he’s played decently. He just can’t stay on the field. Same with Michel, who was instrumental in a Super Bowl win, but has also been injuryprone. So not the best bang for their buck.
N’Keal Harry (2019): The only wide receiver ever chosen by Belichick in the first round (32nd overall). To this point, that’s his only distinction. He hasn’t done much in two seasons. While a preseason injury hindered his development his rookie year, he wasn’t much better last season catching passes from Cam Newton. He doesn’t compare favorably with other receivers taken after him in 2019. At this point, Harry holds the bust label.
Kyle Dugger (2020): The Pats traded their first-round pick (No. 23) to the Chargers. Dugger, a safety, was taken 37th overall in the second. He played at little known Division 2 Lenoir-Rhyne. Understandably, some eyes rolled at this selection, but Dugger looks like a player. Perhaps they could have gotten him in a later round, but his showing at the Senior Bowl improved his stock. School’s still out on how good Dugger will ultimately be. It’s too early to say if he’s going to be a star, although his first season was encouraging.