The Sox are worth watching again
But you should hold off on buying in for now
Make it six wins in a row for the Red Sox.
J.D. Martinez homered three times Sunday in a 14-9 victory over the Orioles.
And it still feels difficult to buy in.
The Sox became the first team since the 2005 Mets to start the year with at least three straight losses and follow it with six wins in a row.
The 2005 Mets, you probably don’t remember, finished 83-79 and didn’t sniff the postseason. They lost five in a row to start the season, won the next six and still managed to finish April under .500 (11-13).
But what the ‘05 Mets did have was an ace. Pedro Martinez, at 33 years old and just off a World Series win with the Red Sox, went 15-8 with a 2.82 ERA. And while the 2021 Sox’ rotation might end up having more depth, they don’t have anyone quite like Pedro.
Eduardo Rodriguez looked as good as one could’ve hoped after an 18-month layoff (five innings, three runs, seven strikeouts against an Orioles team he usually dominates). Nick Pivetta has looked better than expected and could turn out to be a decent back-end starter. Garrett Richards is little more than a project, at this point. Tanner Houck was dominant, but got sent to the minors.
The closest thing the Sox have to an ace is Nathan Eovaldi (12L innings, two runs, 11 strikeouts).
Through two starts, Eovaldi has been as good as anybody. Pull up his StatCast data and you’ll see nothing but red, with numbers that rank in the top quarter of the league in just about every category, while his average exit velocity of 81 mph is better than 97% of big league pitchers.
His repertoire, too, has been worth noting.
He’s almost completely ditched his cutter, a pitch that was demolished to the tune of a .309 average last year and a .344 average in 2019, for a more legitimate slider, a pitch he hasn’t thrown in two years. It comes in about 6 to 8 mph slower than the cutter, but with three added inches of break, it gives him a completely different look to play with.
If he was anybody else, we’d be looking at his first two starts and wondering if this guy was about to lead the Red Sox into the Wild Card Game or, dare we even say it, the Division Series.
Unfortunately, Eovaldi hasn’t made 30 starts since 2017. He’s averaged 20 starts a season throughout his career, and expecting anything more is mathematically irresponsible.
Nobody knows how Rodriguez will hold up over a full season, and there’s no way the team will let him make 30 starts after missing the entire season last year.
Meanwhile, Chris Sale still isn’t throwing off a mound. He had Tommy John surgery about the same time as the Mets’ Noah Syndergaard last March, but Syndergaard was throwing 98 mph off a mound in March and is expected back in June. To expect Sale back anytime before August is also a longshot.
There are other questions, too. While Matt Barnes has never been this dominant, who is Alex Cora’s No. 2 reliever? Adam Ottavino has struggled, Darwinzon Hernandez looks erratically excellent. Rule 5 pick Garrett Whitlock is interesting, but unproven. And it’s the journeyman long-man Matt Andriese who has been Cora’s second choice to close games.
The offense is getting insane production from one player in particular, Martinez.
Rafael Devers is looking dangerous, too. Christian Vazquez is locked in. Alex Verdugo is always consistent. And while Kiké Hernandez hasn’t made much of an impact yet, he’s been hammering the ball.
The Sox will need to figure out how they’re going to get production from the corner outfield spots, who can play second base regularly and if Bobby Dalbec (3-for-25 with 10 strikeouts) is going to become a contributor.
This team has caught some luck with a few replay reviews that went its way and some bad defense from the Rays and Orioles in these last two series, but it’s also been resilient, coming from behind to win four of the six games.
In their own words, they’ve been grinding these victories out. It’s what good teams do, but nothing has come easy. And it’s only April.
The best way to envision the Sox staying atop their division for an extended duration is to believe Martinez is going to have a vintage David Ortiz-like season where he carries the team on his back while inspiring better performance from everyone around him.
“I told you guys when we lost three and everyone was panicking I said relax guys, it’s only three games,” Martinez said. “There’s still a lot more games to go.
“And I’ll say it right now — so what? We’ve won six in a row, there’s still a lot more to go.”
This Red Sox team is showing something. They’re worth watching. They’re engaging. They’re interesting.
They were none of those things last year.
But it’s going to take more than a good week before believing they’ll be in the hunt come September.