MONITORING RIPTIDES

New model to predict hourly probability

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is launching a national rip current forecast model, aimed at saving lives of beachgoers around the country.

This new model can predict the hourly probability of rip currents along U.S. beaches up to six days out. Similar to predicting weather or precipitation, the model predicts the likelihood of dangerous seaward currents on a sliding scale — from 0% to 100%.

“Safety for beachgoers and boaters is taking a major leap forward with the launch of this new NOAA model,” said Nicole LeBoeuf, acting director of NOAA’s National Ocean Service.

“Extending forecasting capabilities for dangerous rip currents out to six days provides forecasters and local authorities greater time to inform residents about the presence of this deadly beach hazard, thereby saving lives and protecting communities,” LeBoeuf said.

Every year, officials send out alerts about powerful rip currents along the Cape and Islands, as well as along the New Hampshire coast.

This new forecast model covers a majority of the U.S.

East and Gulf Coast and portions of California, Hawaii, Guam and Puerto Rico.

“Improved model resolution will enable forecasters to issue more accurate and detailed rip current forecasts further into the future,” said Allison Allen, chief of the Marine, Tropical, and Tsunami Services Branch for NOAA’s National Weather Service.

“This information enables public safety personnel to better prepare for hazardous beach conditions and inform the public of potential for danger before they head to the beach,” Allen added.

Rip currents account for an estimated 100 deaths in the U.S. each year, according to Gregory Dusek, the NOAA scientist who developed the model.

“Before this, forecasters were manually predicting rip currents on a large section of the ocean twice a day and only a day or two into the future,” he said. “The earlier prediction has potential to substantially increase awareness and reduce drownings.”

Moving at speeds of up to 8 feet per second, rip currents can move faster than an Olympic swimmer. Lifeguards rescue tens of thousands of people from rip currents in the U.S. every year.

If caught in a rip current, don’t fight it, NOAA warns.

Swim parallel to the shore and swim back to land at an angle.

Ap fiLe TREACHEROUS WATERS: Swimmers dive into a wave at Seabrook Beach in Seabrook, N.H., on Aug. 20, 2018, at a time when officials were warning of strong riptides after two swimmers were caught in the riptides and died.