PATS MUST LET MAC PLAY LIKE TOM TO BEAT HIM
FOXBORO — Tom Brady stands in the shotgun. His eyes dart side to side, then up at the play clock. He points, he barks. He checks the play clock again, barks a final time, and the ball is snapped. He attacks. The scene is so familiar, so etched into the collective memory of Foxboro, any quarterback at the Pop Warner level could imitate Brady at the drop of a helmet. Brady has since shipped his spread approach to Tampa Bay, where he’s taken the fourth-most shotgun snaps in the NFL this season and posted a passer rating higher than 108.
In the gun, he’s in charge.
By comparison, Mac Jones’ shotgun numbers are middling; the result of pitting a rookie against two top-10 pass defenses in his first three starts. But excluding Jones’ final possession against the Saints, a hopeless drive down two scores undermined by desperation, signs of hope hang on the fringes of a disappointing 1-2 start.
Jones has produced a higher completion percentage, higher yards-per-attempt average and more explosive plays when flanked by three wide receivers in a shotgun formation. He’s also taken sacks less frequently. From a tiny sample, the shotgun seems to amplify all his strengths: pre-snap processing, a quick release and accuracy within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.
Jones lived in the shotgun at Alabama. He saw the field and dissected the defense, then picked his most favorable matchup, another Brady staple. Against Tampa Bay on Sunday, the Patriots ought to let Jones do his best Brady impression.
“(Brady)’s someone who has played for a long time and done it the right way,” Jones said Wednesday. “You definitely want to watch someone like that growing up and being able to emulate them in any part you can in your game and just take what they do and learn from it.”
Furthermore, the early returns on Jones’ under center play-action numbers are discouraging. His play-action splits overall run contrary to most quarterbacks, with a higher sack rate and higher rate of turnovers. Instead of firing into open throwing lanes at the second level, where linebackers usually vacate their zones, Jones is finding trouble.
Beyond Jones, the Pats will play few games this season when their receivers pose matchup problems for opposing cornerbacks. Sunday should be one of them.
Bucs corner Jamel Dean was limited in practice Wednesday, a day after it was reported his status for the game is in serious doubt. Behind Dean, Tampa
Bay has signed street free agents to plug holes in their depth chart, most recently inking 33-year-old Richard Sherman, who is not expected to play. Nelson Agholor, Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne all lean more solid than spectacular, but that could change if Dean is down, with fellow starter Sean Murphy-Bunting already on injured reserve.
“It’s an exciting time for me, honestly,” Meyers said Wednesday of up-tempo drives with three receivers. “You want to know you’re about to throw, so we can go out there and run routes and do what we love to do: go out there and catch passes. I know during the last game, we all got real excited because we knew we were down, and we wanted to help our team as best we could and we fought and battled.”
Attacking those perimeter matchups would prevent Jones from forcing the ball to struggling tight ends Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry. Both should draw three of the Bucs’ highest-rated pass defenders, per Pro Football Focus player grades: linebacker Lavonte David and safeties Jordan Whitehead and Mike Edwards.
From spread shotgun sets, the Patriots have also run the ball well. They’ve averaged better than five yards a carry from three-receiver personnel groupings with Jones in the gun. It’s how they unlocked a stingy Jets defense after a slow start in Week 2, with James White scoring on a 7-yard run late in the first quarter.
On Sunday, expect the Pats to run no-huddle to wear out Bucs defensive tackles Vita Vea and Ndamukong Suh. It’s how they’ve attacked defenses fronted by massive run-stuffers before, and Tampa Bay ranks third in yards per carry allowed. Jones likes how the Pats have performed in no-huddle situations thus far this season, specifically 2-minute drills.
“I think we’ve done a good job,” he said. “Just all of that is about communication and working together as 11 people, so we’ve done that pretty good. But we got to just keep growing on it, and keep adding stuff and find different ways to be creative.”
To establish their future, the Pats must look to the blueprint of the past. The good news is, he’ll be waiting on the opposite sideline Sunday.