Can Pats still make playoffs if they fall to 1-3?
Plenty of experts believed the Patriots would be 3-0 heading into today’s highlyanticipated matchup with Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Instead, the Patriots are searching for a life raft at 1-2.
The signs were discouraging right out of the gate. In the season opener, they were upset at home by Miami, a 3-point underdog. The game turned on a Damien Harris fumble and a winnable game turned into a loss.
After beating the Jets — who doesn’t? — the Patriots then lost to Jameis Winston and the Saints, who bullied them.
Among the issues plaguing the team are protection issues in front of rookie Mac Jones, erratic special teams play and a defense that still can’t come up with the key stops that win games. None of those issues were anticipated.
Now, they have to deal with Brady and his ballyhooed return to Foxboro.
The Patriots aren’t expected to win. A loss would have them at 1-3. There’s still plenty of season left to navigate, but how realistic would a postseason berth be?
The Herald’s Patriots beat writers debate.
Guregian: Call me a pessimist, but I’d say no. Some teams have emerged from a 1-3 hole, but it’s hard to have confidence in this team, based on what’s played out thus far. It’s one thing for Mac Jones to be going through the usual growing pains as a rookie quarterback, but it’s another when the areas around him that were supposed to be strengths – front seven, offensive line, tight ends – have struggled. While I believe the Patriots will eventually get up off the mat, it’s hard seeing them as a playoff team right now, even though I thought they would get in previously. It’s just hard to make that leap at 1-3. The schedule ahead no longer seems as easy as it once did, and the talent isn’t measuring up.
Callahan: Here’s what making the playoffs boils means: nabbing one of three Wild Card spots. That’s the goal, and it’s attainable. No one from the putrid AFC South is claiming one. Assuming two teams emerge from elsewhere, the Pats’ chief objective is really to beat out Miami for the last spot. The Dolphins are 1-2, down their starting quarterback and a worse team by point differential and Pro Football Focus player grades. The Pats have home tilts with the Titans and Browns left and a game at the Chargers. Win two of three, and you have tiebreakers, plus momentum with other winnable games against the Texans, Jets, Falcons, Colts, Jags and Dolphins. It’s a long season. The road doesn’t end Sunday.
Guregian: The road doesn’t end. But the journey to the finish line is much tougher. Looking at this team right now, do you seriously think they can take two of three from the Titans, Browns and Chargers? That’s a pipe dream. I also wouldn’t chalk up that final game in Miami, where they always have a tough time winning. What happened the last time they needed to beat the Dolphins when there were playoff implications? They lost at home on the final game, surrendering home field throughout the playoffs. Through three games, this Patriots team doesn’t look like a 10- or 11-win team. I had them with 11 at the outset. I had them beating Dallas. Doubt it now. I had them beating Carolina. Doubt it now. I just don’t think 9-8 makes the playoffs.
Callahan: Pipe dream? They beat the Chargers 45-0 last year with Cam Newton, and the other two games are at home. The Pats can return Stephon Gilmore in Week 7, Jones will improve throughout the season, elevating the team’s passing game, and the run game will rev up soon. The Patriots won’t face any run defenses better than they have already in Saints and Bucs, who are ranked second and third, respectively. Doubt all you want, but the idea the Pats could be counted out of the playoffs after Sunday, not even one-fourth of the way through the season, is premature.
Guregian: Making any kind of definitive statement about any team is premature after Week 4. No kidding. But based on what we’ve seen thus far, and what lies ahead, it’s fair. I’m even factoring in improvement from Jones, from the offensive line, and the defense to a degree. They’ll win more games. But once again, already losing two games they were expected to win means they’re going to have to make those up someplace. You say they smoked the Chargers last year. They did, but when was the last time they beat Tennessee with Mike Vrabel as the head coach? It works both ways.
Callahan: You said beating two of three fringe playoff contenders was a pipe dream — something unattainable or fanciful — and it’s not. But history is not what ultimately matters here, with the most talented Patriots team since 2018. They just need to put it together, after dropping two coin-flip games. And if the best of Mac Jones, the running game, offensive line and defense are ahead, as you agree, how can the Pats be counted out with the NFL’s best coach? Now, if they lose to Houston? Sure. They’re cooked. But not to the reigning Super Bowl champs captained by Tom Brady on Sunday — especially if they keep it close.
Guregian: The Titans and Browns were both playoff teams last year. They’re not fringe. The Chargers are fringe, but have a quarterback who is capable of leading them to the post-season. Regardless, it’s about being 1-3, with what lies ahead. So you’re willing to kill them after Houston? What’s the difference? It’s the same flawed team that went 1-3. Sure, they have the NFL’s best coach, but it’s also hard to ignore how ill-prepared the team has looked. They’ve taken uncharacteristic penalties killing drives and field position. They’ve made mistakes they never make — offsides on a crucial fourth down in the red zone? They’ve had killer fumbles. They’ve had catchable passes dropped into the hands of opposing defenders. Based on all of this, as well as the schedule, it’s hard imagining them making the playoffs. They flunk the eye test.
Callahan: You’re really asking what’s the difference between 1-3 and 1-4, when that fourth loss would be to the Texans? That would be an inexcusable loss for the Patriots against a rebuilding team devoid of defensive talent and without a quarterback. Not to mention, then the Pats would be more than one-fourth of the way through their schedule. If they play their best game Sunday yet and still lose by a field goal to Tampa Bay — a 7-point favorite — that’s progress. Falling to 1-3 won’t mean falling to their postseason death, especially since real football begins after Thanksgiving, and we’re not even at Columbus Day.