BREAKING DOWN REX’S CLAIM
Former Jets boss says Pats have no chance at playoffs
Rex Ryan had some fun last week at the Patriots’ expense, which should come as no surprise.
The former head coach of the Jets and Bills got a lot of mileage out of once saying he wouldn’t kiss Bill Belichick’s rings.
His latest salvo? Ryan, now working as an ESPN NFL analyst, made it a point to douse any thought of the Patriots being a playoff team after being asked about the team’s future.
“Not no,” he said, “but hell no.”
Then Ryan called rookie quarterback Mac Jones a “peashooter,” and one of the reasons the Patriots won’t be headed to the postseason.
“Hey, the ball travels down the field more than 15 yards? Uh-oh! That’s bad news for this guy. He’s closer to Danny Wuerffel than he is Tom Brady.”
Ouch!
That’s unfriendly fire, not to mention a good TV soundbite. Ryan knows how to attract attention and loves to shoot from the hip. He’s made a living out of it.
But let’s take away the bluster and tackle Ryan’s points about Jones and the Patriots at face value.
First off, with the Patriots sitting at 2-3, it’s easy to put a “hell no” on the Patriots chances to make the playoffs. That’s not an outrageous claim. Plenty have stated the same view watching the Patriots recently, present company included. It’s just a tad premature to be so definitive.
There are a few other 2-3 teams of note in the AFC, including Kansas City and
Pittsburgh. All of the teams in that boat might in fact wind up toast, but it would be unwise to bet on that Week 6, especially with injuries potentially wreaking havoc with other teams in the conference.
Just look at Seattle in the NFC. The Seahawks have to try and survive the next month or so without quarterback Russell Wilson. Situations change, dynamics change. Wild card spots remain a not-so farfetched possibility for plenty of teams that start out slowly.
As for the peashooter crack, Ryan believes Jones struggles whenever he tries to throw the ball outside the numbers or downfield.
Again, if you ignore all of his smugness when he made the case, Ryan’s not totally wrong. He’s actually in the ballpark.
Many of Jones’ current passing numbers support the notion he’s not as good throwing balls outside the numbers. After five games, Jones is 4-of-19 on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield, according to Pro Football Focus. He’s just 2-for-8 throwing deep left, 2-for-9 deep center, and 0-for-2 deep right. His numbers are much better with the short and intermediate routes.
But this is hardly a revelation.
Jones has never been known to have a world-class arm. That was evident in the lead-up to the draft. Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, and Justin Fields, who were all taken before Jones, all had better grades when it came to arm talent.
Jones’ calling card was his intelligence, accuracy, quick decision making, and quick delivery. His arm wasn’t a plus, but it was still considered strong enough to be successful in the NFL.
But predicting how Jones’ lack of having a cannon for an arm might impact him, and the Patriots by extension, remains up for debate.
When Drew Brees was coming out of college, he wasn’t known to have a howitzer, either. And he did just fine.
Then there’s Brady. Critics still make fun of his NFL Scouting Combine photo. Shirtless and in shorts, Brady hardly looked like a professional athlete, much less the greatest quarterback of all time.
When it comes to Jones, he still has to develop. He’s far from the finished product at this stage. The Patriots and Josh McDaniels have also taken a conservative path with him.
Heading into the Dallas game, Jones averaged just 6.5 yards per attempt. Some of that is due to the play-calling, and McDaniels protecting his rookie quarterback from making mistakes. His opportunities to throw the ball downfield have also been limited by having inconsistent play from the offensive line.
As for his arm strength, or lack of such, the Patriots are sure to get him on a program — if they haven’t already — to add some muscle to his frame and give him a stronger base. That will help with those throws.
Speaking with Patriots Hall of Famer Rodney Harrison, who was on hand in Foxboro with NBC during the Patriots Week 4 game against the Buccaneers, he agreed the rookie could probably use “an extra 10 pounds of muscle.”
“But that maturation is going to come with time. So at the end of the day, does he have an arm like Justin Herbert? No, he doesn’t have an arm like Justin Herbert. Who the heck does?” said Harrison. “But at the same time, at this point in time in his career, if you talk about the leadership, the consistency, the knowledge of the game, the accuracy, all of those different things, you couldn’t be happier for the kid.
“Yeah, he’s thrown some passes that should have been picked, just as most of these kids are,” he went on. “But at the end of the day, I’d take this kid leading my offense, over any of those other rookies.”
Opposing defenses are naturally going to test his throwing ability as the season progresses. They’ll try to force Jones to throw outside the numbers by flooding the middle of the field. Eventually, Jones is going to have to prove he can make those throws.
“Yes, he’s going to have to prove it,” Harrison agreed, “but they’re going to have to be more aggressive in their play-calling to get defenses off of him. If teams are being aggressive, jumping all of his routes, then take a shot every series just to send a message to soften the defense. (McDaniels) is trying to minimize mistakes, but the shots down the field can be calculated.”
Kind of like throwing a purpose pitch in baseball.