How the defense can slow Dak and Dallas
Fourth time’s the charm?
The Patriots, 0-3 at home this season, are in danger of losing a fourth straight game at Gillette Stadium against Dallas.
The Cowboys enter as solid favorites, largely thanks to their explosive offense comprised of multi-time Pro Bowlers at virtually every position. Dak Prescott is at the controls, completing 73.9% of his passes for 1,368 yards, 13 touchdowns and three picks. Dallas also boasts a two-headed monster in its backfield, with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard both averaging more than five yards per carry. And then there’s the offensive line, clearing space for all the yards, points and victories.
How can the Patriots possibly contend?
Lighten the box
The Cowboys are averaging 5.8 yards per carry against defenses with seven defenders in the box, a typical number on early downs. That number jumps to 6.3 yards when defenses back off, deploying six or fewer.
The Pats might as well back up from the jump.
Dropping a safety down or folding an extra linebacker into the box won’t solve their run defense, a below-average to average group by most advanced metrics. The Patriots must accept that they’re going to cede yards to Elliott and Pollard, a worthy sacrifice if it means keeping Prescott out of rhythm. Almost 70% of Prescott’s attempts this season have been to targets within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Crowding his throwing lanes takes priority. This will put immense pressure on defensive tackles Davon Godchaux and Lawrence Guy, but they signed for a combined $26.5 million this offseason for games like these. It’s time to stand up to the NFL’s best run-blocking line, according to Pro Football Focus, so the rest of the defense can neutralize Dallas’ weapons outside.
Reintroduce the ‘Amoeba package’
Considering the similarities between the Cowboys offense and Tampa Bay’s — first-rate weapons, a top-10 offensive line and star quarterback — it reasons the Pats should dust off their game plan against the Bucs and use it Sunday. One piece missing from that plan, however, was a once famous “Amoeba package,” a third-down scheme that stands all 11 defenders up and calls for several to roam around the line of scrimmage pre-snap. The objective is to confuse opponents by not declaring a single pass rusher. If the quarterback and/or center can’t determine who’s rushing and who’s dropping — let alone whether the defense is blitzing or not — that’s an edge for the Patriots.
The Pats stressed all week the importance of confusing Prescott. What better way than to show him something he hasn’t seen before? “We’ve got to keep ‘em off the board, try to get stops, try to make Dak (Prescott) read some defenses and hold the ball a little bit longer so we can get to him,” Pats linebacker Matt Judon said Wednesday. “All 11 guys got to be on point this week.” Said Bill Belichick: “You don’t want to just tell them what you’re in, and see what they can do about it. Make ‘em figure it out, make ‘em work for it, change it up on ‘em a little bit.”
Double Cooper in the red zone
As balanced as the Cowboys have been, there’s one star that’s shone brighter closer to the end zone: No. 1 wide receiver Amari Cooper.
Cooper leads all Cowboys with eight targets inside opponents’ 20-yard line this season. Fellow wide receiver CeeDee Lamb has hardly received a look in that area, while leading pass catcher Dalton Schultz, a tight end, has only seen four targets and caught two. Under Belichick, the Patriots have made a habit out of doubling opponents’ best weapons on third downs and inside the red zone. Two years ago, they showed Cooper utmost respect by shadowing him with Stephon Gilmore, who later won Defensive Player of the Year. Without Gilmore, it’s time for the Pats to get back to their old tricks.