Virus levels in wastewater: ‘This is pretty worrisome’

The Boston-area coronavirus wastewater tracker is showing skyrocketing record levels as COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations surge across the Bay State.

The virus wastewater levels were climbing quickly in the days after Thanksgiving, and now the wastewater viral levels are through the roof — at about the same record-high average levels as in January during the height of the winter surge.

“This is pretty worrisome,” said Davidson Hamer, a Boston University specialist in infectious diseases. “The wastewater data closely mirrors community transmission rates, and all the indicators are not good right now.”

The north of Boston region had a record-high wastewater level recorded on one day last week, and the south of Boston region had its second highest ever recording last week. The viral levels south of Boston are about 23% higher than in the northern region as of now.

The wastewater levels indicate future virus cases in the community.

“The wastewater is predictive, and when it’s going up like this, you expect a significant surge in cases,” said

Todd Ellerin, director of infectious diseases at South Shore Health. “Then in the weeks to follow, you see an increase in hospitalizations and an increase in deaths.”

Infections and hospitalizations have been spiking in Massachusetts for weeks. The state Department of Public Health reported more than 5,000 daily cases on Thursday and Friday, which were the first days exceeding 5,000 infections since January.

Then the state’s hospitalization total surpassed 1,000 patients on Friday — the first time that had happened since mid-February.

The wastewater tracker’s high levels mean the numbers are expected to keep on going up.

“We’re going to see a lot of breakthrough infections,” Hamer said, urging people to get boosted as soon as possible.

“If we want things to continue to be as close to normal as possible, we need to have an indoor mask mandate to limit transmission,” he added.

Cases are surging amid the spread of the delta variant, and as the first omicron variant case was detected in Massachusetts over the weekend.

“I think we have to remember that we haven’t had a delta winter yet, and that is formidable,” Ellerin said. “The prospects that there could be a hybrid of delta and omicron as they compete for viral dominance is certainly concerning, and something that we want to be proactive about.”

Ellerin, like Hamer, stressed the importance of getting vaccinated and boosted.

“We need our antibody levels high right now,” Ellerin said. “We know the higher our antibody levels, the higher our protection will be.”

Researchers at Biobot Analytics have been tracking the COVID-19 sewage samples in Greater Boston — in partnership with the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority.

The Cambridge firm recently announced that their researchers have detected the influenza virus, which causes the flu, in wastewater.

Mariana Matus, Biobot’s CEO and co-founder, said, “While more research needs to be done, we are encouraged by these early pilot results and are hopeful that the communities already testing for COVID-19 can tap into the same wastewater monitoring infrastructure to also monitor influenza in the near future.”