To beat Bills, Pats must run the rock
Buffalo defense will crack against run game
It’s time for Act One. The Patriots and Bills will play twice over the next three weeks in games that should decide who claims the AFC East. Akin to any high-profile matchup, quarterback play will be the greatest factor in how tonight’s game and its encore in Week 16 unfold. As well as Mac Jones has performed the past six weeks, Buffalo undeniably holds an edge under center.
So how can the Pats even the playing field against Josh Allen? By leaning on Jones’ supporting cast.
The Bills have been gashed twice this season by run-heavy teams: the Colts and Titans. Indy demolished the Bills two weeks ago in Orchard Park, with Jonathan Taylor rushing for 185 yards and scoring five touchdowns. While it’s unlikely either Damien Harris or Rhamondre Stevenson even come close to replicating those feats tonight, the Patriots’ clearest path to victory lies on the ground.
Here’s how Jones and the Pats can beat Buffalo in primetime:
Flood the field with misdirection
The best way to displace an aggressive defense is turn that aggression against them.
The Patriots rang up a season-high 54 points on the Jets by laying trap after trap for a young, inexperienced defense. While the Bills field a much older and wiser unit, the Colts punished them with several misdirection runs, chiefly wham plays that deliberately allowed a defensive lineman upfield and then blocked him from the side by a tight end or fullback.
Against all misdirection runs — including counters, draws, end arounds, reverses, traps and whams — the Bills are allowing 5.4 yards per rush, per Sports Info. Solutions. There’s a reason for that.
“The whole defense is aggressive in everything,” Bill Belichick said this week. “It’s why they’re one of the best defenses in the league. They’re aggressive on the run, aggressive on the pass.”
Through the air, look for the Patriots to counteract Buffalo’s pass rush with their highly effective screen game. Against the Bills, the Pats have called an average of four screens per game since coach Sean McDermott took over, and Buffalo is currently allowing the seventh-highest passer rating versus screens this season.
Target Edmunds in coverage
Earlier this week, Belichick called Bills linebackers Tremaine Edmunds one of the top players in the NFL.
Against the run and tackling in space? Sure. But in coverage, not so fast.
According to Pro Football Focus, Edmunds ranks among the league’s worst coverage linebackers. He’s allowed catches on 32 of 37 targets for 337 yards and two touchdowns. That’s 10.5 yards per reception, good enough for a first down on most snaps
Opponents have targeted Edmunds more often as the season has wore on. Don’t expect the Patriots to become an exception tonight.
Stick to the run
Bottom line: the Bills will break.
Hammer their defensive front long enough, and it will crack, allowing room for a few long runs. Their run defense is slightly above average, while their pass defense ranks tops in the league. Unless Jones is attacking the short middle of the field — where he’s performed worse relative to league average this season — there won’t be many passing mismatches to attack.
If you’re the Patriots, it’s best to stick to your strengths, especially off the right side. Right tackle Trent Brown and right guard Shaq Mason form one of the best run-blocking duos in the league. Plus, Buffalo is allowing 4.5 yards per carry against runs to the right this season, a full yard more than they’re allowing everywhere else.