Prepare for the worst and pray it never happens
It is one thing when you have a self-inflicted wound, like the Afghanistan exit. It is quite disappointing when you see a major problem staring at you and getting worse over time before it wounds you, like what to do about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Thus far, we have relied on sanctions against Russia.
But the situation becomes totally different when you get a surprise incident you have to respond to.
The first two situations were fumbled and handled badly despite having plenty of time to prepare. I think that if President Joe Biden could get a mulligan on the handling of the Afghanistan exit debacle, he would take it.
Despite seeing the atrocities in Ukraine, Biden and NATO may not want a mulligan. They may feel the current status quo is better than the alternative of fighting the Russians in a conventional war. But I wonder: In preparing Ukraine to fight its own war, couldn’t we have deployed our military hardware much earlier?
U.S. and NATO forces rejected or failed to remember how former President George H.W. Bush successfully got the world community on board in confronting Iraq after its invasion of Kuwait. At the time, Iraq had the fourth largest military in the world. Bush got nearly 40 countries to participate in the fight against Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. The conflict ended in less than a month with no significant loss of life to U.S. forces or our allies.
Instead, Biden, NATO and the European Union have chosen the “no-ideahow-this-is-going-to-end” option.
Meanwhile, inflation has been getting worse. The recently reported inflation rate of 8.5% has not been seen in 40 years.
This will prompt higher interest rates per borrowing. The price of energy, especially at the gas pump, will inevitably continue to rise despite gimmicks to suppress it. We also face the prospect of severe food shortages, because Ukraine and Russia are big players in the global grain and wheat market. Food costs will continue to soar. Based on historic measurements, the U.S. economy could be in a recession by next year.
All of the above could have been avoided and should not be blamed on others.
Recent polls show that only 50% of Americans feel Biden is honest. That is alarming.
While thankfully we have not been hit with a surprise incident, must work now to prepare for the unseen.
Readiness. When I entered Congress, I was fortunate to win an assignment on the House Armed Services Committee. This was in 1991, just months after Iraq invaded Kuwait.
To my surprise, I was made the ranking member on the Readiness Subcommittee. For a guy in his mid30s to be the top Republican on the subcommittee, I guess you could say I was in over my head. I figured they must have put me there because I could do no harm to the nation.
But I soon saw the importance of the subcommittee’s work. For starters, I had direct and frequent contact with the late Gen. Colin Powell, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
On the Readiness Subcommittee we were less concerned with what was happening on the ground in Iraq and Kuwait. Our job was to wrestle with “what if ” scenarios.
How many outbreaks of war around the world could the U.S. military handle at the same time? How many theaters could we be in and successfully defeat our enemies if necessary? How could we project military strength in a new troubled spot if required? Remember, of the 600,000 troops sent to defend Kuwait, 400,000 were U.S. men and women.
I took my responsibilities very seriously. I dug in and did my work, hoping that, even if I had done it well, we would not see the unforeseen scenarios we contemplated.
Today I trust and pray that while we are focused on Russia, Russia, Russia, we have talented folks working and preparing the U.S. for problems that could unexpectedly take a turn for the worse. We have to keep our eye simultaneously on several extremely volatile parts of the world. Over the years, we have increased our enemy list partially due to the side effects of sanctions.
For example, looking back at history, the U.S. oil embargo on Japan prompted the empire’s surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, catapulting us into World War II in two theaters.
We are Americans. We must not allow a weak cog in the machinery to cripple us. We must band together, help each other, and not be overly influenced by NATO and the EU.
American leadership in the world is vital. China, Taiwan, Iran and North Korea may not be of grave concern to NATO or the EU, but they are to us.
We must quietly prepare for the worst and be thankful when it does not happen.
Gary Franks served three terms as U.S. representative for Connecticut’s 5th District. He was the first Black Republican elected to the House in nearly 60 years and New England’s first Black member of the House. He is the host of the podcast “We Speak Frankly.” Follow him on Twitter @GaryFranks.