Throwaway lesson: Jones can learn from Brady
FOXBORO >> Picture this.
The Patriots offense is suffering from an identity crisis. It’s overrun on passing downs by pressure streaming off the right side. Unprecedented questions about Bill Belichick and his pocket-bound quarterback are being raised everywhere. And a loaded second half of their schedule will close with kickoffs against the Dolphins and Bills.
Easy enough, right? Of course.
Because not only are the Patriots confronting all of those problems today, they combated them three years ago.
In 2019, Tom Brady’s farewell season, the Pats went 2-4 over their last six games, dragged down by a limited and predictable offense. Their top-ranked defense couldn’t save them, nor their above average special teams. Barring a major shakeup to their scheme or personnel, that same fate appears to await the 2022 Patriots, who own a belowaverage offense per every advanced metric, including some that rank them as a bottom-8 outfit.
There is one change, however, that might buoy them: improved quarterback play under pressure.
According to Pro Football Focus, Mac Jones owns the NFL’s second-worst passer rating (27.2) and third-lowest accurate pass rate (51.5) under pressure this season among starters. He’s fired as many interceptions as he has throwaways. He’s risking a turnover on 10.6% of these plays, per PFF, third highest in the league.
The heat turns up, and Jones melts.
Back in 2019, Brady did not save that Pats team with his trademark magic. In fact, most of the year Brady’s efficiency and production reflected that of a slightly above average passer. And over the second half of the season, he ranked among the least efficient and least productive quarterbacks in the league.
But what Brady never did, early or late that year, was nuke the Patriots by himself.
Instead, he posted a turnover-worthy play percentage of 3.1% (fifth-best in the NFL) and set a career high in throwaways, preferring the offense stall out instead of going in reverse because he took a sack or fired an interception. Those plays, he understood, would end offensive drives and diminish the Pats’ advantages on defense and special teams by handing the opponent favorable field position.
“Part of it’s just you feel like you have an opportunity on the play, and if you don’t have that, then I think negative plays actually have a big impact on the game,” Brady said in 2019. “Turnovers and negative plays, I think, really keep you from winning games.”
According to one study, a sack saves the defensive team an average of 1.75 points every time a quarterback goes down.
Brady first embraced the throwaway starting in 2014, the first of six straight seasons when his throwaway rate under pressure hit double digits. Over those years, Brady managed three Super Bowl rings, two of his best seasons by QBR and one MVP award. Oh, and the six highest throwaway totals of his career.
As for Jones, the young quarterback seems to sense his poor play under pressure, particularly after a rookie year when he thrived in a crowded pocket.
“For me, it’s just keeping my eyes downfield and stepping up in the pocket and do all that stuff,” Jones said Wednesday of how it can improve. “It depends on the play, what I’m looking at and things like that. The offensive line is doing a good job, and I just need to continue to work on that and get the ball to everybody else because that’s when we start getting yards.”
Contrary to Jones’ assertion, the Patriots offensive line has regressed with him this season. It’s allowed an average of one extra pressure per game with Jones under center. Opposing defenses are meeting running backs at the line of scrimmage on 45.6% of the team’s run plays, per Sports Info. Solutions, the fourth-worst mark in the NFL.
Right tackle Isaiah Wynn allowed a sack and took a penalty in five straight games en route to multiple benchings last month. Rookie left guard Cole Strange has also been benched the past two games.
Out wide, Patriots receivers have failed to unstick often enough from tight coverage and sync with Jones when he reaches the end of his drop, especially since he returned from his high ankle sprain. That lack of connection has occasionally led to Jones holding the ball too long and a couple of his seven interceptions. All errors eventually affect Jones.
Asked about his passing game under pressure, Pats coach Bill Belichick took a global view when assessing how it could improve.
“In the end, it comes down to team execution and trying to, in the passing game, have a good rhythm and a good timing. When that all works, then you usually have good positive plays,” Belichick said last week. “When it doesn’t, when the receivers get jammed or they’re not open, or the protection breaks down or the coverage takes something away that you think is going to be a good option and it turns out not to be, then that’s where it’s just not as clean.”
But whether Jones is waiting on his receivers or taking too long himself, he must bail on broken pass plays. The ball and the offense are his responsibility. He’s risked both of them far too often.
Jones has also mentioned several times that the Patriots’ inefficiency on early downs is tanking the offense, and he’s right. In addition to embracing more throwaways, offensive play-caller Matt Patricia can boost the team’s first-down pass rate (20th in the NFL) and should. He can call more quick passing concepts to help the receivers and alleviate pressure on a distressed offensive line.
But then it’s on Jones. To live to see another down, and perhaps extend the season.