PATRIOTS SECONDARY ABOUT
What do most of the Patriots remaining opponents have in common?
Superstar talent at receiver. Toss in a few elite quarterbacks, and it’ll be interesting to see if the Patriots secondary can continue the run of success its had over the course of the first half.
This is the real litmus test for this Patriots defense, the secondary in particular. Discovering how they fare against a top quarterback who has top flight weapons at receiver.
Can they shut down the NFL’s best?
Because that’s what’s on tap this coming week and beyond.
Thanksgiving night against the Vikings, they’ll get a healthy dose of Kirk Cousins taking aim at the NFL’s top receiver, Justin Jefferson, whose insane one-handed catch against the
Bills is still being talked about. Add in Adam
Thielen and the
Patriots will have their hands full.
After that, it’s Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis hauling in missiles from Josh Allen. The Patriots will see that Buffalo combination twice.
Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are also in the mix with Joe Burrow, along with Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa and his superstar tandem of Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle.
The Patriots didn’t exactly shut down Hill (8 catches, 94 yards) and Waddle
(4 catches, 69 yards, 1 TD) in Week 1, although it could have been worse.
Deandre Hopkins (Arizona) and Davante Adams (Las Vegas), who couldn’t be covered in the Patriots joint practices with the Raiders in August, are also part of the second-half schedule. Jefferson (117.8), Hill (114.8), Diggs (109.4), Hopkins (99.0), Waddle (87.8), Adams (87.1) and Chase (86.4) stand as seven of the league’s top 10 receivers in receiving yards per game. Thus far, the performance of the Patriots secondary has been a pleasant surprise given the loss of top corner J.C. Jackson in free agency during the offseason. The Pats also traded Stephon Gilmore, who was a huge contributor on the 2018 Super Bowl winning team, during last season. That meant when the season started, there was no sign of a shutdown corner anywhere in the mix.
Looking at the numbers, that hasn’t been a problem. Statistically after nine games, the Pats secondary ranks second in the league by DVOA, while Pro Football Focus has them ranked eighth as a coverage team.
The group has also picked off 11 passes in nine games, which is second best in the NFL.
Moving Jonathan Jones from the slot to the outside was a master stroke, while Jalen Mills has also performed well out on the boundary. Myles Bryant has primarily been used in the slot, while rookies Jack Jones and Marcus Jones have both provided positive contributions.
Jack Jones, in particular, has stood out. Heading into Week 11, he was PFF’s highest graded rookie defender. The fourthround pick is tied for the Patriots team lead in interceptions (two) and passes defended (five). The Patriots’ talented group of safeties is part of that coverage grade, with Devin McCourty having a pair of interceptions in the first Jets game, but it would also be remiss not to mention the pass rush. That’s been vital to the coverage grade, with Matthew Judon, Josh Uche, Deatrich Wise and the Patriots front getting to the quarterback on a regular basis during the first nine games.
Will it continue, even against Zach Wilson and his group of receivers, led by rookie Garrett Wilson, who has more catches (42) and yards (521) than any Patriots receiver?
Former Patriots linebacker Ted Johnson, now a local talk show personality, would love to say yes, but
couldn’t say with any certainty.
“I want to say they’ll be able to handle those receivers, but my honest answer is, I’m not sure,” Johnson said when reached Wednesday. “I’m not totally confident that they can because they haven’t played any elite receivers outside of Week 1 (Miami).”
At the very least, it’ll be interesting to see how Belichick schemes to handle the upcoming teams that feature two big-time threats.
He doesn’t have a shutdown corner, per se, to lock down one, while double-covering the other. So he’ll likely go with what he feels are the matchups that give him the best chance.
Against Miami, he primarily used Jonathan Jones, his fastest defender, on Tyreek Hill. Jones had success with Hill in the past, and really didn’t allow any explosive plays. Mills took on Waddle, sometimes with safety help.
As for the 6-foot-1, 203-pound Jefferson, who has emerged as the league’s top receiver, the Pats will likely double him, with single coverage on Thielen.
That will probably be the same plan with Chase, who has been out with a hip injury but expected back as soon as Week 12, and Higgins.
Johnson also believes it’s going to come down to the Patriots pass rushers, and how they fare. While Judon (11.5 sacks) has been virtually unblockable, the front has benefitted by facing some suspect offensive lines. See Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and the New York Jets.
“I just think the offensive lines are going to be much better over the course of the second half, making it more difficult to put pressure on,” said Johnson. “Quarterbacks are going to have more time, and the secondary is going to be tested in a way it hasn’t been up to this point.
“So I don’t feel comfortable saying they have it figured out, and they’ll continue this excellent play in the second half of the season.”
If the Patriots want to give themselves a chance to make the postseason, the defense, and secondary in particular, are going to have to deliver.
While the Vikings and Bills have two of the better-ranked offensive lines, there are still a few cupcakes with the Raiders (21), Bengals (22) and Cardinals (23) near the bottom of PFF rankings. So we’ll see if the pass rush can speed up the quarterbacks.
Johnson is also hesitant to go all-in on the defense and secondary because several highly rated Patriots units crashed and burned late in the season.
The 2019 unit falls into that category. So does 2021.
It remains to be seen if this group can get the job done.