Team can almost double its cap space
Plenty of moves can be made ahead of free agency
In two weeks, NFL free agency will unofficially kick off behind closed doors in Indianapolis.
Agents and front-office executives will meet at various hotels, bars and steakhouses during the NFL scouting combine for initial contract talks. Two weeks later, the league will announce the start of its “legal tampering” period for free agency, during which time negotiations between teams and agents can officially begin. Then, voilà.
New deals will be reported across the league within hours, maybe even minutes. By the time free agency actually opens on March 15, most major business will be concluded. During this time, expect the Patriots to be busy.
The Pats are currently projected to hold $33.9 million in cap space ahead of free agency, sixth-most in the NFL. The Bears lead the league at $94.4 million, followed by Atlanta ($56.5 million) and the Giants ($47.8 million). If the Patriots want to ensure they compete for all their top free-agent targets, they could theoretically double their cap space before early March without sacrificing much roster talent.
How? Follow along. (All salary figures below are courtesy of Over The Cap.)
Extensions, restructures
Start with the best player on the roster.
The Patriots can create $4.9 million in cap room by restructuring the contract of four-time Pro Bowl pass rusher Matt Judon, who has two years left on his deal. Most contract restructures in the NFL convert nonguaranteed base salary into a signing bonus, an amount paid up front to the player and spread over future years on the team’s books.
The downside for the Patriots would be eating into their cap room next season. The Pats have carefully protected their future cap space ever since the wild spending spree of 2021, and they are again positioned to rank in the top 10 for most cap room in 2024. That offseason will also mark the first time quarterback Mac Jones will be eligible for a contract extension
Whether Jones is deserving of an extension — or will be next winter — is relevant. What matters is that possibility looms and must be considered before the front office decides to kick any financial cans down the road through restructures. But for our purposes, let’s say the Patriots believe the short-term gain outweighs any long-term risk and pull the trigger on a Judon restructure. The Pats’ available cap space jumps to $39.4 million
Other moves could include extending tight end Hunter Henry, who’s entering a contract year. Last season, Henry endured his worst statistical season since 2016 playing under a misfit coaching staff. That drop-off in production could either motivate him to leave next year or find comfort in long-term security.
If the Patriots can lure their 28-year-old tight end into an extension, they could generate $6.7 in additional cap room, per Over The Cap, bringing them to $46.1 million in total room. Again, this would come at the cost of their 2024 cap space, something the team must weigh.
Other veterans to watch include safety Devin McCourty, who, whether he returns or retires, should reach revised terms before his contract expires next month. His contract is currently set to leave the Pats with $9.7 million in dead money next season.
Coming off a career year with two seasons left on his deal, defensive end Deatrich Wise could also receive a request to restructure. Wise, 28, is a rising leader in the locker room and a one-time defensive captain. He could help create $2.2 million in cap space with a revised deal, taking the Patriots to $48.3 million in total room.
Trades
The Pats’ pool of trade candidates is basically a subsection of their cut candidate pool with one exception: Jonnu Smith.
The veteran tight end has been a gargantuan disappointment in New England because of the bloated contract he signed as a free agent in 2021. Ensuing restructures have all but ensured Smith will remain in Foxboro for another season because of the new guaranteed money in his contract. Cutting Smith would only create cap room if he was released with a postJune 1 designation (a salary cap rule that allows teams to split accelerated cap charges across two seasons instead of one). Even then, he would open up $4.6 million in space and incur a $12.6 million dead cap it.
But what if they waited and then traded him? Trading Smith after June 1 would create more than $10.8 million in new cap room (and a $6.4 million dead cap hit). That space could cover all of the Patriots’ in-season expenses.
Of course, the Pats would need a trade partner, and no team wants an underachieving veteran with a massive, multi-year contract. So, let’s say the Patriots attach a draft pick. Or maybe two.
There is precedent. In 2017, the Texans traded quarterback Brock Osweiler to Cleveland in a deal that freed up $16 million in cash and $10 million in cap space for Houston. The price of dumping Osweiler on the rebuilding Browns was a second-round pick.
Including compensatory picks, the Patriots are projected to own three fourthround picks in the 2023 NFL Draft and four sixthrounders. Would attaching a fourth and a sixth-round pick to Smith in exchange for a conditional seventhrounder get it done? What about a fourth and two sixths? Two fourths?
Like the 2017 Browns, there are several rebuilding teams today with significant cap space who might be open to such a deal: Chicago, Arizona, Atlanta and … the Texans. Houston’s rebuild continues under former Pats personnel executive Nick Caserio and firstyear coach DeMeco Ryans.
Considering the relationship with Caserio, the dead end Smith’s career has reached in Foxboro and the organizational need to contend soon, it’s worth a phone call.
Release
OK, so the Pats prefer not to wait and want added cap space now. They’ve added at least $14.4 million already through Judon’s restructure, Henry’s extension, new terms with McCourty and Wise’s restructure. It’s chopping block time.
Considering their respective contract statuses, these players could be seen as candidates for trade or release: wide receiver Kendrick Bourne ($5.4 million), kicker Nick Folk ($2.2 million) and punter Jake Bailey. If Bailey’s suspension survives the grievance he’s filed, his $2.115 million guaranteed salary for 2023 would likely be voided. If so, that’s another $2-3 million the Pats could save by cutting their disgruntled, disappointing punter.
As for Bourne, multiple AFC teams inquired about him last summer. The Patriots would be selling low on any trade involving Bourne, who’s entering the final year of his team-friendly deal. But if they feel strongly about adding a receiver in free agency and Tyquan Thornton’s development, his salary is plenty portable via trade or release.
The same could be said of DeVante Parker, though it’s harder to see the Pats parting ways with him even though his exit would create slightly more cap room. The Pats cannot cut backup Brian Hoyer for much salary cap gain, but if they find a trade partner, offloading Hoyer could create roughly $1 million in space in a critical offseason when every penny counts.