Unpacking the Red Sox Opening Day starter dilemma
FORT MYERS, Fla. — Pitchers and catchers report today, and thus begins spring training and approximately six weeks of speculation: Who will start for the Red Sox on Opening Day?
The Sox have more than enough options to fill a fiveman rotation, but the dilemma of who gets the ball first is a reminder that quality and quantity are not a Venn Diagram.
For the first time in years, there is no clear Opening Day man.
In 2016, it was David Price, who’d signed a record-breaking contract the previous December. In 2017, it was reigning American League Cy Young winner Rick Porcello. In 2018, it was Chris Sale, who’d led MLB with 214 ⅓ innings and 308 strikeouts — both career highs — the year before. And in 2019, it was Sale again, the obvious choice, given that he’d ended the previous postseason by moonlighting as the closer and clinching the World Series, though Nathan Eovaldi’s Game 3 heroics made a strong case, too.
Let’s review this year’s options:
2019 was the last time Sale was healthy for Opening Day. He’s thrown 48 ⅓ big-league innings since returning from Tommy John surgery in August 2021.
James Paxton missed the entire 2022 season, first due to Tommy John and then a lat tear during his first rehab game. He’s made six starts since the beginning of 2020.
Corey Kluber would be the obvious choice if it was 2018, and he was the reigning AL Cy Young (Sale was runner-up). He is coming off his deepest season since 2018, though.
Brayan Bello pitched beyond his rookie eligibility last year, but it’s hard to see him getting the nod when he’s still so new. He spent the offseason training at Pedro Martinez’s
house, though.
Garrett Whitlock had a stellar rookie season in the bullpen in 2021, but struggled as a starter in his sophomore season, before going on the injured list and requiring season-ending hip surgery.
Likewise for Tanner Houck, who impressed in a brief 2020 debut and has pitched fairly well over the subsequent seasons, but also needed season-ending surgery, for his back.
Finally, there’s Nick Pivetta, the only member of last year’s rotation who didn’t need an IL stint. From a health standpoint, he’d be the guy, but he posted a 4.56 ERA and 1.380 WHIP across 33 games last year. Those numbers don’t exactly scream “dominance,” and the Sox need to dominate from the jump.
On Opening Day 2019, the Red Sox were reigning champions and, fielding a mostly-unchanged roster, looked poised to repeat. Sale took the mound, freshly inked to a lucrative extension after his World Series triumph. But instead of flowing smoothly from Game 5 into Game 1/162, he allowed seven earned runs in only three innings.
Sale being able to start on Opening Day would be the kind of underdog, Cinderella story this city eats up, but after everything he’s been through over the last several years, the Red Sox aren’t going to rush him back; he had Tommy John surgery in April 2020 and returned in August 2021, only to miss the first half of the 2022 season with a rib stress fracture. Then, in his second start of the year, a 106.7 mph line-drive comebacker fractured his pinky finger in his second start of the year, and while he was rehabbing from that injury, he broke his right wrist in a bicycle accident, ending his ‘22 campaign at 5 ⅓ innings.
At Winter Weekend, Sale was jubilant and self-deprecating, calling himself “Humpty Dumpty put back together” and smiling as he discussed the first spring training he’s been able to be excited about in years. On Tuesday, Manager Alex Cora told reporters the 34-year-old southpaw is “doing well” and is slated to throw two bullpen sessions this week, then face hitters in a live BP next week.
To some extent, it doesn’t matter who takes the mound for the first inning of the first game of the season; the Red Sox have flipped the script so many times over the years, for better and worse. They lost Opening Day 2004, then reversed an 86-year curse. They lost Opening Day 2007 and took home a second trophy. They lost Opening Day 2018 and bounced back bigger and better than ever before, winning a franchiserecord 108 regular-season games and their fourth World Series of the century.
But symbolically, the Opening Day starter still matters, especially after an offseason of so much roster turnover. And this time, if
Sale isn’t ready, Eovaldi won’t be waiting in the wings.
It’s only one game, but it’s also Game 1, and the Opening Day starter makes the first impression of the season. They need to set the tone: pitch deep into the game, and not get shelled in the process. Do any of the aforementioned arms fit both requirements?
If not, the statement made on Opening Day will be that the Red Sox reluctantly chose from an underwhelming assortment, to begin an underwhelming season. It’s not easy to rewrite that narrative.