Will Chaim Bloom buy or sell at the trade deadline?
The first half is in the books, and now with the All-Star break in the rearview mirror the Red Sox are looking ahead to a potentially pivotal stretch leading into the Aug. 1 trade deadline.
With so much hanging in the balance, seems like a perfect time to empty the mailbag and answer all of your questions.
Today we cover whether the Red Sox should buy or sell, Alex Verdugo’s future with the organization and what fans should realistically expect from some of the most intriguing prospects in the system.
What do you think Chaim Bloom will do at the trade deadline? — Everyone
This was by far the most commonly asked question and a lot of you asked some version of it in your submissions. This is also a tough one to predict, because how the Red Sox approach the deadline will likely be determined in large part by how the club plays over the next two weeks. Bloom himself may not know whether he’s going to buy or sell just yet.
Personally, I think the Red Sox will buy, but I also think they will disappoint a lot of people by adding smaller names who don’t move the needle as much. I certainly don’t expect the club to trade the farm for Shohei Ohtani, and ultimately I think Boston’s biggest August additions will be players like Trevor Story and Chris Sale.
That being said, you don’t have to look hard for examples of players who weren’t highly touted but who made a massive impact on championship rosters. Nathan Eovaldi, Steve Pearce, Dave Roberts, the list goes on.
My guess, if the Red Sox decide they’re going to go for it, they will add a starting pitcher. There should be loads to choose from, among them Chicago’s Lucas Giolito and Detroit’s Michael Lorenzen, just to name a couple who could be on the trade block.
So Nick Pivetta will stay in the bullpen. Will he be more of a “long man” or a “bulk starter” that is scheduled weekly? — Joe G.
Nick Pivetta’s role is hard to define, but the simplest explanation is he is a long reliever whose job is to follow an opener and handle a starter’s workload. Why use Pivetta that way instead of as a traditional starter? It’s all about creating favorable matchups and ensuring Pivetta is put into the best possible position to succeed.
One of the advantages to using an opener is it prevents the opposing manager from stacking their lineup with lefties or righties. On days Pivetta is expected to pitch the Red Sox will use a left-handed opener, and usually that prompts the opposition to field a more balanced lineup with more righties than Pivetta might see otherwise.
Another advantage to using an opener is they’ll typically face the top of the order first, and then whichever long relief option follows will come on and start with the bottom of the order. For Pivetta, that would mean more at bats against worse hitters and fewer at bats against the heart of the lineup.
Though the concept can seem a little strange, it’s easy to see the appeal. If you’re facing more lowerquality hitters in more favorable lefty-righty matchups, of course you’re going to be more successful, and for Pivetta the numbers bear it out. As a starter this season Pivetta’s posted a 6.30 ERA and allowed an .885 opponents OPS. In the bullpen those numbers are 2.79 and .513 respectively, totally night and day.
Boston has occasionally used a similar approach with rookie lefties Chris Murphy and Brandon Walter, only instead with a righty opener, and for the most part the results have been good. Obviously it would be better to have a rotation of reliable and effective starting pitchers, but with all the injuries the pitching staff has absorbed the Red Sox have done a great job maximizing their roster and creatively avoiding scenarios that are likely to end with an overmatched arm getting shelled.
Chances of Chaim going out and getting Yamamoto or Ohtani this offseason? Yamamoto seems far more likely to me. — @atlas_baseball.
Let’s save Ohtani for another day, there will be plenty of time to cover his future in the weeks and months to come. Yamamoto though, is a very interesting possibility worth exploring.
For those unfamiliar, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a 24-year-old Japanese superstar who is expected to be posted by his Nippon Professional Baseball club this coming offseason. He currently pitches for the Orix Buffaloes, the same club Masataka Yoshida played for prior to the Red Sox, and he’s been posting video game numbers since making his professional debut in 2017.
As of this writing Yamamoto has a 1.94 ERA over 818.1 career innings, and this season he’s currently 9-3 with a 1.66 ERA, 101 strikeouts and only 12 walks over 92.1 innings. He’s already a four-time AllStar, a two-time MVP and a two-time Eiji Sawamura Award winner, which is the Japanese equivalent of the Cy Young. He also threw a no-hitter in June 2022 and acquitted himself nicely in the World Baseball Classic this past spring.
Yamamoto’s pitch mix should translate well to the big leagues. He boasts a mid-90s fastball, a filthy splitter and an excellent curveball, among other offerings. The main concern would be that Yamamoto is on the small side at 5-foot-10, 170 pounds, but he’s proven plenty durable so far. He’ll be in high demand this coming offseason if Orix opts to post him.
As for the question of how likely the Red Sox are to sign him, if they like him they won’t hesitate to make a strong push. We know Red Sox scouts spent a lot of time around the Orix Buffaloes while scouting Yoshida, and the club has a long tradition of successfully integrating Japanese pitchers.
I’m not telling you it’s going to happen, but Yamamoto is definitely a name to keep in mind this coming offseason.
The Red Sox hope Kyle Teel is the long-term answer at catcher down the line, but the system is very thin at catcher. Does Bloom likely see the position as sufficiently “solved” for the next few years with the Wong/McGuire combo, or should we expect an upgrade this offseason? — Steve M.
I think the Red Sox are likely to try and build up more organizational depth at catcher, though a lot of what could be done might not register as an “upgrade” in an obvious sense.
For starters, Connor Wong has exceeded all expectations and truly has emerged as one of the best everyday catchers in the big leagues. He’s outstanding defensively, has developed a great rapport with the pitching staff and can hit a little bit too, especially when he heats up and starts crushing balls off the Green Monster two or three times a night. His breakout has been a huge development
for the Red Sox, who will have him under team control on affordable deals for the next five seasons.
The question is who else can the club rely on besides Wong? Reese McGuire has taken a step back this season and has been more or less a replacement-level backup, Jorge Alfaro is one of the worst defensive catchers in the big leagues, and Boston’s options at catcher in the high-minors are not particularly enticing.
If the Red Sox want to make an upgrade their best course of action would be to add at least one more catcher who they’d be comfortable putting on the 40man roster, either as the big league backup or as the first man up from Triple-A.
With Devers and Casas being the future at the corners for the Sox, where do players like Blaze Jordan and Chase Meidroth fit in? — richg6567
That’s a great question, one the Red Sox would be perfectly happy to punt on until it actually becomes an issue.
Jordan and Meidroth are both enjoying terrific years in the minors, but as promising as they look today they are still prospects who have a long way to go before they are ready to make an impact at the big league level. For all we know their development could stall and they never make it.
But suppose they do continue to improve and eventually emerge as potential impact players at the big league level. What then? Well, that would be a great problem for the Red Sox to have, and once they have a real choice to make the club could figure out a course of action that makes sense.
Maybe they could shift Jordan or Meidroth to a different position, perhaps second base or the outfield, to accommodate everyone. Maybe they could trade them as part of a blockbuster deal, or maybe they would trade Casas instead? You never know how things could play out two or three years down the line, but producing more big league talent than your roster has room for is never a bad thing.
Where does the organization see Ceddanne Rafaela at in his development and will that have a heavy impact on whether they extend Verdugo? — Jakob G.
I don’t think Rafaela will be a significant factor in how the Red Sox approach Alex Verdugo’s future with the organization. The club has been very deliberate in how it’s brought Rafaela along, and for all his talent he still has weaknesses in his offensive approach that would be exposed by big league pitchers.
Those weaknesses are why Rafaela started the season in Double-A and spent as long in Portland as he did, and I’d bet he’ll spend a significant amount of time in Triple-A before he’s given consideration for a meaningful big league role. Maybe we’ll see him in Boston this September as a late-inning defensive replacement and pinch runner, but he’s a long way from being ready to take on a full-time spot.
Remember, it took Jarren Duran three years and three MLB call-ups before he finally figured out big league pitching and developed into the impact player the Red Sox hoped he could become all along. Sometimes these things take time, and rushing Rafaela along before he’s ready wouldn’t benefit anyone.
The question of extending Verdugo is an important one, but the most pertinent issue is whether or not the Red Sox believe he can be a building block for the future. If they don’t, he’ll probably be traded and Rafaela could be part of the long-term plan instead. But if they do believe in Verdugo, then they should and probably will re-sign him, and if Rafaela pops off afterwards they could always shift Yoshida to designated hitter and go with something like a Duran-RafaelaVerdugo alignment.
Have you heard of anything regarding Vergudo potentially being traded? And what overall grade do you give Chaim for this past off-season and the moves he made? — Brandon K.
I have not heard anything concrete regarding the organization’s plans for Verdugo, but given where the Red Sox are in the standings and in their competitive cycle I think it’s highly unlikely he’s traded midseason and I don’t think he’ll go anywhere this offseason either.
This is not 2020, when the Red Sox moved Mookie Betts because they didn’t feel like they were in position to surround him with enough talent to capitalize on the early years of his big money deal. The Red Sox have already committed more than $300 million to Rafael Devers over the next decade, have Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida under contract for the next four years and are beginning to produce the kind of young nucleus the organization lacked four years ago with guys like Triston Casas, Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock and others just on the horizon. It’s time to win, and trading Verdugo now would be counterproductive.
So, given that, how well did Bloom position the team to compete with his moves this past offseason? There were certainly some missteps, but overall I think he did a better job than a lot of fans have given him credit.
Yoshida has exceeded expectations and Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Justin Turner have all been as good or better than anyone could have realistically expected. Adam Duvall was red hot before his season was derailed by a freak wrist injury, and the jury is still out on Joely Rodriguez and Richard Bleier, who have been injured and ineffective so far but who could still turn things around in the second half.
Those additions, plus the improvement of several key players from within, have helped turn several of Boston’s biggest weaknesses last year (the bullpen, outfield) into areas of strength.
The middle infield, obviously, has been a disaster, and that’s made losing Xander Bogaerts particularly painful. But considering the club lost its first, second and third options at shortstop to injury, then also lost its primary second baseman for a month, and on top of that suffered from Kiké Hernández being unable to rise to the occasion… that’s a lot for any team to overcome.
The big black mark on Bloom’s offseason is the starting rotation. Losing Nathan Eovaldi, who is having a Cy Young caliber season, and replacing him with an ineffective Corey Kluber is a tough look. The Red Sox are fortunate that misstep hasn’t been more costly, but that’s also an indicator that the larger strategy of handing the keys to the kids has paid off. Bello has been outstanding, and when healthy Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford have all shown they can get the job done.
Taken together, I’d give Bloom’s offseason a “B.” He’s given the Red Sox a chance to compete, but the job isn’t finished and this team will need reinforcements if it hopes to reach its full potential.