What the year ahead could look like for layoffs
You’re probably seeing headlines almost daily screaming about layoffs, layoffs, layoffs. The ubiquity of those stories may make you worry about your own job stability.
There was a 10% increase in layoffs last year from the previous year — 19.8 million in 2023 compared with 17.6 million in 2022, according to an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
But monthly layoffs throughout 2023 were actually slightly below pre-pandemic levels after a massive spike during the start of the pandemic, BLS data shows.
“I’m cautiously optimistic. I think there are some signs that we’ll still see robust demand for workers, be that through hiring or a relative absence of layoffs,” says Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab, which tracks employment trends.
The current job market is incredibly resilient, and labor market indicators show that workers who are laid off aren’t likely to stay unemployed for long. The unemployment rate has stayed steady between 3.4% and 3.9% since December 2021. Unemployment claims, meanwhile, are largely in line with pre-pandemic claims, Department of Labor data shows. That goes for initial claims — by those unemployed for the first time — and for continued unemployment claims — those who have remained unemployed beyond an initial claim.
“I’m not particularly concerned,” says Elise Gould, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute, a Washington, D.C., think tank.
If economists aren’t panicked, it means you probably shouldn’t be either. Unless, of course, you’re in one of the sectors that’s seen an uptick.
Where are layoffs happening?
In the scope of the entire labor market, tech and media remain the outliers when it comes to layoffs, Bunker says. “This time last year there were concerns about what’s happening to the tech or media industries or the broader information sector. And you could see from the data that layoffs did tick up, but that was not representative of what you saw in the rest of the market — it didn’t spread out.”
The transportation and warehousing industry has also seen a rise in layoffs since companies began downsizing after more rapid expansion during the pandemic. But employment in the sector is still well above pre-pandemic levels.
Among other sectors, a Feb. 1 report by Challenger, Gray and Christmas, an outplacement company, shows the financial industry has had the most job cuts so far in 2024 with a total of 23,238 in January. That’s the highest monthly layoffs among financial companies since September 2018.
Gould says layoffs like these aren’t necessarily signs of industrywide distress. Some reflect the churn that happens in the economy in any given month — jobs lost are offset by jobs added, she says. Throughout 2023, the amount of jobs added often exceeded expectations. That trend remained in January: The amount of jobs added was double what was projected.
“There’s a lot moving,” says Gould.
Despite some worrisome trends in the information sector, widespread layoffs throughout the labor market still aren’t likely to happen anytime soon under current conditions, experts say.