Should Sox really be celebrating?
The countdown to spring training is on. The mandatory reporting date for Red Sox pitchers and catchers is Feb. 15, but can we count on the Sox improving in 2023? The answer to that pertinent question was lost in the vomit-inducing victory lap the Sox took last Wednesday formalizing the contract extension of Rafael Devers.
The team’s brass might land on the injured list with torn rotator cuffs from patting themselves on the back for locking up Raffy like they landed a man on Mars. It was a full-on Fenway fete for doing the correct thing, securing a homegrown star. In fairness, the Sox and chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom would’ve been savaged if they didn’t sign the Last Guy Left. They’ve taken quite a few L’s this offseason.
However, Boston sports hadn’t seen such a self-congratulatory coronation since Rick Pitino became coach and president of the Celtics in 1997, when Devers was an infant. You would’ve thought the Sox, basement-dwellers in two of Bloom’s three seasons, were celebrating receiving a get-out-of-lastplace-free card.
Bloom’s biggest bet is not lavishing a 10year, $313.5 million extension on the excellent third baseman. It’s betting that the hit rate of his farm system is going to be sufficient enough for that to be the primary means through which he improves the team around Devers and delivers the sustainable winner he promised John Henry and Tom Werner. He’s gambling that this ownership and fan base will exhibit the patience for that to come to fruition, if it does.
There seems to be no long-term plan for contention other than Bloom waiting for the farm system to bear fruit with the likes of Triston Casas, Brayan Bello, Marcelo Mayer, Bryan Mata, Nick Yorke, and Miguel Bleis. The Sox feel like Hurry Up and Wait for the prospects to peak in 2025. Casas and Bello are major league-ready now. The others aren’t.
It represents a greater strategic risk than needs to be taken with the vast resources of the Red Sox.
“I believe that Chaim has a clear plan to not only make us competitive but to win another World Series,” said Werner, the Sox chairman. “I have a lot of confidence in our minor league system, and you’ll be seeing some of the results of that this year and next year . . . I think the margin between winning and losing is pretty thin in our division, but I’ve got a lot of confidence in our roster, and I also know that Chaim intends to improve it.”
Bloom was supposed to emulate Theo Epstein or be an East Coast analog of his former boss in Tampa, Dodgers executive AnThe drew Friedman. Instead, he has turned out to be a strict ideologue. It’s like the MLB version of the Star Wars show “The Mandalorian” playing out: This is the Way.
Bloom backers will be quick to point out that he did dip into free agency this offseason. He buttressed the bullpen, including a closer in Kenley Jansen (two years, $32 million). The Sox outbid everyone — or just bid against themselves, according to some rival evaluators — to win the rights to Japanese outfielder Masataka Yoshida at a total cost of $105.4 million over five years, including a $90 million contract for Yoshida. They signed former Dodgers slugger Justin Turner to a two-year deal and finally brought home Corey Kluber, who owns a home in Winchester.
However, the team still saw a greater outflow of proven major league talent than influx of it, especially with shortstop Xander Bogaerts taking his talents to sunny San Diego with Don Orsillo.
Bloom often speaks of the Sox having the full menu of options available, but he seems to keep ordering from the same section. It’s the one marked “Alternatives to proven major league talent and long-term deals.”
The Sox have just listed from one extreme to another.
The one significant lucrative long-term deal Mr. Risk Management Model doled out to a player outside of the organization looks dicey. The Sox’ not-so-furtive plan to replace Bogaerts with Trevor Story, signed last offseason to a six-year, $140 million deal, hit a major snag.
The Sox announced Tuesday that Story underwent an elbow procedure considered an alternative to Tommy John surgery. He’ll miss months. His throwing remains a red flag.
The Sox literally couldn’t afford to let Devers, who will play this season under a oneyear, $17.5 million contract before his extension kicks in in 2024, dangle. With the Story news, they would’ve had a Red Sox Nation revolt on their hands.
Devers, 26, is a dynamic bat. His numbers and ability to hit high-velocity speak for themselves. However, this notion being proffered that he was a chimerical candidate for this type of deal is sophistry.
Mookie Betts was 27 when he was dealt to Los Angeles and then inked a 12-year, $365 million extension with the Dodgers in 2020; a deal he told the Globe at the All-Star Game he would’ve taken to stay in Boston.
In Mookie’s final season here, the former American League MVP led the majors in runs, hit 29 home runs, and drove in 80 runs. His slash line was .295/.391/.524, good for a .915 OPS. Last season, Devers hit 27 homers with 88 RBIs. His slash line was .295/.358/.521. Devers has never finished higher than 11th in the MVP voting.
Betts is a six-time Gold Glover. Devers has developed into an average third baseman — for now. Fangraphs rated him 14th among 19 third basemen that logged 800 or more innings in defensive runs saved (minus-6) and 11th in defensive runs above average (0.4). Halfway through this deal, Devers is ticketed for first base or DH.
That’s not to knock Devers. He deserves this contract. But Devers represented the last chance for the Sox to get this right and reverse the vibes.
Bloom offered an entreaty to frustrated fans.
“You know what we have. You know there is more coming, and you know it’s not always linear. It’s not always easy,” he said. “We’ve taken a couple of haymakers. We’re probably going to take a couple more. This is baseball. It’s not supposed to be easy. But I want to be clear: We’re going to do this, and it’s going to be awesome.”
Hopefully, the Sox will have something to celebrate truly worthy of Wednesday’s rhapsodic tone very soon. But I wouldn’t bet on it.