Which QBs are under the most pressure?
Every NFL quarterback is under some pressure to perform, even the best ones. Aaron Rodgers has to prove that he is the missing piece for the Jets. Deshaun Watson has to prove that he was worth that massive contract from the Browns. Ryan Tannehill has to prove that he’s still worthy of being a starter.
But pressure is relative. Rodgers doesn’t really have to worry about job security, his salary, or his legacy if his stint with the Jets fails. Watson has four more years fully guaranteed, whether he stinks or not. Tannehill doesn’t face big expectations of winning a Super Bowl for the Titans.
Let’s take a look at the quarterbacks who are under the most pressure to perform in 2023:
■ Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins: Yes, the Dolphins picked up his fifth-year option for 2024, which is fully guaranteed at $23.171 million. But as the Browns proved last year with Baker Mayfield, that guarantee doesn’t amount to much of one, as most teams will simply pay money to facilitate a trade or release if they decide that the quarterback isn’t worth it. Tagovailoa, one of the most polarizing quarterbacks among talent evaluators and fans, has everything on the line this year — to prove that last year’s improvement wasn’t a fluke, and that he can stay healthy and be a quarterback the Dolphins can rely on.
■ Russell Wilson, Broncos: His first year in Denver was an unmitigated disaster, with the Broncos finishing 5-12 with the lowest-scoring offense in the NFL, and Wilson falling off sharply compared with his 10 seasons in Seattle.
Wilson’s contract, which has a whopping $107 million in dead cap space this year, is likely what earned him a second season in Denver. But Wilson, 34, likely won’t get a third season if he doesn’t show major improvement, especially now that the Broncos have hired a proven offensive guru in
Sean Payton.
The Broncos may have to do some salary-cap gymnastics next year to move on from Wilson, but they won’t again stick with an aging, expensive, and struggling quarterback.
■ Kyler Murray, Cardinals: He just signed a seven-year deal last summer, and Murray is guaranteed to make $39 million this year plus $35.3 million next year, but he probably isn’t feeling great about his job security. Murray is rehabbing a torn ACL suffered in December, and even if he is able to be ready for the first month of the regular season — a big if — Murray won’t be the same dynamic athlete he was until at least 2024.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals appear to be tanking, er, taking their lumps for 2023 and hitting the reset button. That could result in the No. 1 draft pick, and the temptation to trade Murray and draft Southern Cal quarterback Caleb Williams.
Murray doesn’t have great options this year. The more time he takes coming back from his injury, the more it could hasten his exit from Arizona, but if he comes back too soon, poor play could also spell the end of his time as a Cardinal.
■ Kirk Cousins, Vikings: The Vikings have gotten only a modest return on the five years and $155 million they have sunk into Cousins — just two playoff appearances and one playoff win. Cousins did lead the Vikings to a 13-4 record last year, but they suffered a home playoff loss to the Giants in the wild-card round, and Cousins struggled a bit in Kevin O’Connell’s scheme, compiling the lowest completion percentage of his Vikings career (65.9) and doubling his interceptions from 2021 (7 to 14). Cousins, in the last year of his contract, is likely playing for his future in Minnesota.
■ Dak Prescott, Cowboys: He has a 61-36 record in seven seasons and is coming off two straight playoff appearances, but patience is getting tested in Dallas, with the Cowboys going 28 years without reaching even the NFC Championship game. Prescott is also coming off a season in which he threw a league-high 15 interceptions in just 12 games. He has two years left on his contract, paying him $31 million this year and $34 million next year, so coach Mike McCarthy’s seat is probably hotter than Prescott’s.
The Cowboys have publicly acknowledged the possibility of an extension for Prescott, but owner Jerry Jones said earlier this month “it is not imperative” to get a deal done before training camp. Jones would be wise to hold off until after the season.
■ Mac Jones, Patriots: Jones struggled in his second season, and enters 2023 with significant questions about whether he has what it takes to be the Patriots’ long-term starter. Jones’s contract played in his favor this year — he is owed just $2.07 million, making him one of the best bargains in the NFL — and Jones seems to have significant support from the Krafts.
Next year, Jones is on the books for just $2.785 million, another massive bargain. But that could work against him if he struggles in 2023, as the Patriots could easily cast Jones aside at that price. Jones needs to remind everyone why he looked like the most promising young quarterback after his 2021 rookie season.
■ Lamar Jackson, Ravens: Jackson has his MVP award and his fat contract, paying him $260 million over the next five years, so it’s not like he’s playing for his job in 2023. But now that he is getting paid as the best quarterback in the NFL, it’s time for Jackson to prove that he is elite — specifically, that he can stay healthy and win in the playoffs. Jackson hasn’t played in a postseason game since 2020, and has just one playoff win in his five seasons.
■ Desmond Ridder, Falcons: The Falcons were surprisingly pesky last year at 7-10, and now have assembled an impressive collection of offensive talent with tight end Kyle Pitts, receiver Drake London, and running backs
Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, and
Cordarrelle Patterson. With a proven quarterback, or a highly touted rookie, this could be one of the best offenses in the league. Instead, the Falcons are pinning their hopes to Ridder, last year’s third-round pick who started four games with modest results — a 2-2 record with just two touchdown passes and 177 passing yards per game.
The Falcons don’t have any real pressure to succeed this year, but it would be a shame to waste their offensive talent with a subpar quarterback.