Many potential foes for Celtics
On March 25, the Celtics clinched the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs, becoming the first team to lock in its spot. They will also be the last team in the conference to find out its opponent.
The No. 8 seed will not be determined until April 19, when the loser of the 7/8 Play-In Tournament game faces the winner of the 9/10 matchup.
The Celtics’ first-round opponent will likely come from a fiveteam group that includes the Pacers, Heat, 76ers, Bulls, and Hawks. Indiana (44-34) entered Saturday night in sixth place, with a half-game lead over the Heat and a 1½–game lead over the 76ers. The Bulls (37-40) and Hawks (36-41) are locked into the bottom two play-in spots.
The Celtics will never publicly say which team they would prefer to face in the first round, but nothing is stopping us from doing that here, so let’s rank them, from preferred choices to ones the Celtics would be happy to avoid.
1. Bulls
The Celtics went 3-0 against the Bulls during the regular season. All three wins were by double digits, including one in which the Bulls shot 57.3 percent from the field. Yes, the Bulls have some sturdy veterans in DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic, but no one the Celtics would fear taking over a series. The Bulls’ minus-1.8 net rating is the worst of any potential Celtics opponent.
The Bulls have actually played well without former AllStar Zach LaVine, who is out for the season with a foot injury. They were 10-15 with him in the lineup and have gone 27-25 without him, with Coby White putting up career highs in points (19.1), assists (5.1), and rebounds (4.6).
The Bulls play at the secondslowest pace in the NBA, which could prepare the Celtics for similarly deliberate teams such as the Knicks, Magic, and Cavabefore liers.
2. Hawks
A potential first-round rematch against the Hawks became at least slightly more interesting last week, when the Celtics dropped two games in Atlanta despite the absence of star guard Trae Young and starting forward Jalen Johnson. The Celtics were not at full strength either, with Jrue Holiday and Derrick White missing one game and Al Horford sitting out the other.
Nevertheless, the 243 points Atlanta scored over the two games — one went to overtime — were a reminder of its ability to pile up points. The Hawks have the fourth-ranked offense in the East and have embraced the 3-point shot during Quin Snyder’s first full year as coach, vaulting from 27 th in attempts per game last season to seventh this season. They are also dangerous on second efforts, ranking fifth in offensive rebounding percentage.
The fact that the Hawks took the Celtics to six games last season would give them some confidence, too. The Nuggets and Pacers are the only other teams with two wins against the Celtics this season.
3. Pacers
These teams have met five times this season because of their matchup in the quarterfinals of the In-Season Tournament, which the Pacers won. Although the Celtics took the season series, 3-2, Indiana showed that it can create issues with its relentless attack. The Pacers own the NBA’s second-ranked offense but can be a sieve at the other end, where their defense ranks 24th.
The Pacers made one of the league’s most significant trade deadline deals when they acquired Pascal Siakam from the Raptors. Although Siakam has played well, it hasn’t translated to team success. The Pacers were 24-17 before the former All-Star joined the team and are 20-17 with him.
Tyrese Haliburton was a leading MVP candidate over the first two months but has not been the same player since injuring his hamstring in a Jan. 8 loss to the Celtics.
Also, second-year standout Bennedict Mathurin is out for the season following shoulder surgery.
4. 76ers
This is where things really get interesting. The full-strength 76ers are one of the best teams in the NBA, as evidenced by their 28-8 record with reigning MVP Joel Embiid in the lineup. Embiid missed two months because of a knee injury and the 76ers went into a free-fall. They are 14-27 without their superstar center this season.
But Embiid returned Tuesday and quickly guided the 76ers to wins over the Thunder and Heat. With two weeks until the first round begins, he will have time to fully regain his rhythm. So much would fall on Horford’s shoulders on the defensive end once again.
Last year, of course, the 76ers were a few minutes away from eliminating the Celtics in Game 6 of the conference semifinals
they crumbled and Jayson Tatum saved the Celtics before leading them to a win in Game 7.
James Harden is gone now, but his departure has allowed All-Star Tyrese Maxey to fully blossom. Also, the 76ers have made some solid additions, including Kelly Oubre Jr., Buddy Hield, and Kyle Lowry. Really, though, it all comes down to Embiid.
5. Heat
Wait, are we really doing this again? Well, Celtics fans surely hope not. These teams have met in the conference finals in three of the last four years, with the Heat winning twice and coming within a Jimmy Butler 3-pointer in 2022 of being 3-0.
Like always, the Heat have scuffled through an uneven regular season filled with injuries and uncertainties. Like always, the Heat appear to be getting healthy when it matters, and they still have Butler, whose transition from regular-season star to postseason superstar has become an annual occurrence.
The Celtics did go 3-0 against the Heat during the regular season, and they acquired Kristaps Porzingis in large part to prepare themselves for matchups such as this, hoping he can punish switch-heavy defenses with postups. But it would be a mistake to think that Heat coach Erik Spoelstra would not have a counter.
The Heat made a seemingly significant move at the trade deadline when they acquired former Celtics guard Terry Rozier from the Hornets, but it hasn’t worked out. The Heat are 9 points per 100 possessions worse with Rozier on the floor.
But the truth is that the Bucks look terrible, the Knicks are banged up, and this would likely be the Celtics’ most challenging matchup until at least the conference finals.