Dems: Trump doesn’t have leverage
Senior House Democrats held a conference call on Thursday night with members of the Democratic caucus, and according to a Dem aide, one of the key conclusions reached on the call was this: In the battles over Obamacare, Trump's border wall, and funding the government, Democrats – not the White House – must behave as the ones with the leverage.
As the 100-day mark of the Trump presidency approach, panic has set in among aides who fear that the press coverage will brutally (and accurately) reflect his historical lack of accomplishments. This is leading to questionable decisions on their part that could prove destructive to the country – and could backfire and make the 100-day mark coverage even more brutal for them. But this worry should also be seen as handing more leverage to Democrats in the near term. Dems seem both aware of this and inclined to act accordingly.
The White House has adopted a new strategy in the battle over funding the government, one designed to compel Democrats to help fund Trump's Mexican wall and expanded deportation force. White House budget director Mick Mulvaney is now saying that the White House might agree not to sabotage the Affordable Care Act – by funding the subsidies to insurance coverage for lower-income people which, if halted, could melt down the exchanges – if Democrats agree to fund the wall and more immigration enforcement agents.
But on the Thursday night conference call, House Dems resolved not to back down in the face of any such pressure, according to a readout of the call provided by a Democratic aide.
"We have the leverage and they have the exposure," Dem leader Nancy Pelosi told people on the call, per the aide, adding that, because Republicans are in the majority, keeping the government funded will be seen as "their responsibility."
Also on the call, Rep. Nita Lowey – the ranking Dem on the Appropriations Committee – flatly declared: "We are not building a wall." Lowey said progress was being made in negotiating with GOP appropriators towards a short-term government funding bill. But she noted that a short-term extension of the previous funding bill – called a "continuing resolution," or "CR" – might be necessary first, which suggests Democrats are willing to allow things to come to a head before buckling to White House demands.
Now, it remains to be seen whether Democrats will hold as firm as their current posture suggests. It also remains to be seen what Democrats will get out of these negotiations. But it looks likely that Republicans will need Democratic votes to pass a government funding bill, both in the Senate (where Republicans only hold 52 seats and will need to break a Dem filibuster) and in the House (where conservatives may bolt, leaving Republicans short of a majority on their own). Democrats want Republicans to drop the White House demand for funding for the border wall and increased deportations, and they also want Republicans to fund the "cost sharing reductions" (CSRs) that subsidize low out-of-pocket costs for lower-income people, to prevent insurers from fleeing the individual markets, which could leave at least 10 million uncovered.
The White House position is that the need to fund the CSRs gives Trump leverage to demand funding for the wall and a deportation force. But why should Democrats give Republicans anything in exchange for funding the CSRs, when Republicans are currently trying to inflict far more damage on the Affordable Care Act than not funding the CSRs would?
Absurdly enough, even as the White House is demanding concessions in exchange for not sabotaging the ACA, it is also pushing Congress to vote on a new version of the GOP repeal-andreplace bill that would be even more regressive and destructive than the last one was. Trump would likely take the blame for the chaos and loss of coverage that killing funding for the CSRs would unleash. Why should Dems bail him out of that problem – and allow Republicans to wield the CSRs as leverage against them – as long as the drive to roll back coverage for far more people continues? This should – and likely will – increase the resolve of Dems to dig in harder.
Tellingly, multiple reports indicate that the White House is demanding a rushed vote on the new repeal-andreplace bill because aides are desperate to showcase something, anything, as a legislative achievement in time for the 100-day mark. So you'd think the last thing the White House can tolerate is a government shutdown on Trump's watch at precisely that moment, which would further reinforce the image that Trump and Republicans are making an enormous mess of governing. And so, in the government funding fight, Democrats should see the looming 100-day milestone as something that also gives them increased leverage. Judging by this week's Democratic conference call, they are aware of this.