Trump may not be GOP’s biggest problem
President Donald Trump's potential impeachment isn't even Republicans' worst problem. Sure, they look foolish and craven trying to play defense for a president whose bullying tactics may finally do him in and whose habitual dishonesty leaves him exposed to the detailed denunciation of former FBI director James Comey. Yes, it's true — Republicans' failure to take action against his attorney general, who apparently concealed three meetings with the Russians from the Senate Judiciary Committee and omitted them from his security clearance application, demonstrates their fecklessness. And, certainly, their utter lack of concern for arguably daily violations of the emoluments clauses belies their claim to be "constitutional conservatives." But they actually have even bigger problems with the electorate. The Quinnipiac poll last week told us: "American voters disapprove 62-17 percent of the Republican health care plan, compared to a 57-20 percent disapproval in a May 25 Quinnipiac University poll... Republicans approve of the health care plan 42-25 percent, as every other listed party, gender, education, age or racial group disapproves by wide margins. Voters oppose 65-30 percent decreasing federal funding for Medicaid. Republicans support a Medicaid cut 49-39 percent, while every other listed group opposes the cut by wide margins. Voters disapprove 66- 28 percent of the way Trump is handling health care."
In other words, by a tepid plurality, Republicans approve of the Republicans' signature issue, health-care reform, but the vast majority of Americans hate it. Even worse for their electoral prospects, Republicans in Congress are highly unlikely to deliver on health-care reform, thereby alienating their base. They end up with a disappointed base and a majority of engaged, angry voters. It's a deadly combination in a midterm election, especially given the historic pattern in which the party that holds the White House loses seats in the first midterm.
Sure enough, Quinnipiac shows a huge deficit for Republicans in generic congressional polling: "American voters say 51-39 percent that they would like to see the Democratic Party win control of the House of Representatives. Independent voters are divided as 43 percent want Republican control and 42 percent want Democratic control. By a similar 52-39 percent, voters would like to see Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate. Again, independent voters are divided, with 42 percent for Republicans and 43 percent for Democrats." Voters aren't thrilled with the job Democrats are doing but they really don't like what the Republicans are up to: "American voters disapprove 73-19 percent of the job Republicans in Congress are doing and disapprove 6328 percent of the job Democrats in Congress are doing."
An early indicator of Republican troubles will come a week from Tuesday in the special election in Georgia's 6th Congressional District. A new poll last week from the Atlanta Journal Constitution should frighten Republicans. "Democrat Jon Ossoff has a 7-point edge over Republican Karen Handel in the nationally watched race to represent Georgia's 6th Congressional District." Ossoff leads 51-44 in a district Tom Price won by 23 points in 2016. Handel's debate performance and campaign more broadly have not endeared her to voters. Ossoff has a favorable rating of 52 percent, Handel just 42 per- cent. He is holding his base and picking up more cross-over voters than she is. ("He's capturing about 13 percent of Republican voters and 50 percent of independents — a crucial voting bloc that leans to the right. It shows almost no crossover on the flip side; only 3 percent of Democrats say they're backing Handel.")
Interestingly, Trump is slumping in the district, but Handel isn't as damaged by her association with him as one might expect. The poll shows:
"Only about one-third of voters in the district approve of him, and 1 in 4 Republicans give him an unfavorable review. Eleven percent of his supporters in November said they have a dim opinion of him. Still, a plurality of voters — 45 percent — said their support or opposition to the president didn't play a role in their vote for Congress. About 40 percent of voters said their vote aimed to send a message that they opposed Trump — including more than three-quarters of Democrats."
The big problem for Handel seems to be the Republicans' American Health Care Act. In the district, 81 percent of voters say it's the most important issue, and it is really unpopular. ("Just onequarter of voters said they approve of the House's health care plan, and the poll shows tepid support even among Republicans.")
In sum, in a district that is rated as 9.5+ Republican, a traditional suburban stronghold for Republicans, a Republican forced to defend the AHCA may lose by a significant margin. There are a considerable number of districts far less Republican than the GA-6 which, if the GA-6 goes Democratic, become optimal pickup seats for Democrats. Trump's low approvals and appalling behavior may discourage Republicans and energize Democrats. What may seal the GOP's fate, however, is a health-care bill that voters detest.