Off to an 0-2 start? You’re doomed
Slow starts in the NFL can have disastrous consequences. Since the league expanded its playoff field to 12 teams in 1990, just 28 out of 223 teams (13 percent) during that time have recovered from an 0-2 start to make the playoffs. Since 2002, when the league expanded and reorganized into eight divisions, the rate of teams making the playoffs after a 0-2 start is even lower (14 out of 133 teams, 11 percent). And overall, teams starting 0-2 average less than six wins over the course of the season, with almost two-thirds (61 percent) of those teams winning six games or fewer.
That’s not an encouraging sign for the Buffalo Bills, New York Giants, Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Oakland Raiders, Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks, because after Week 2, each team has less than a five percent chance at making the playoffs.
- Seattle Seahawks, projected 6-10 record in 2018
Seattle has losses against the Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears, the latter an uninspiring 24-17 defeat in front of a national audience on “Monday Night Football.” Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson was sacked five times in the first half and six total in the game plus threw a pick-six, his first interception returned for a touchdown since his rookie season. And those sacks? The game charters at Pro Football Focus put all but one of those on Wilson. Otherwise, Seattle’s offensive line gets good marks for their pass-blocking ability; they rank eighth heading into Week 3.
The team’s run-blocking, on the other hand, is dismal. PFF has Seattle’s offensive line ranked fourth to last through two games and their rushers have 138 yards for the season. Just 29 of those yards occurred after contact, per Sports Info Solutions, indicating nothing is working on the offense early in the season.
Perhaps the defense, which has allowed a below-average 1.8 points per drive this season (15th in NFL), will improve after the return of linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright. If so, maybe the Seahawks can make a run at the wild card.
- Houston Texans, projected 6-10 record in 2018
Houston’s starting quarterback, Deshaun Watson, was an MVP candidate in 2017 before a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee cut his season short. Before the injury Watson was the most valuable passer per ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating (83.5 QBR), meaning his performance was good enough for the team to win better than 83 percent of the games he played in. In 2018 he ranks 23rd with a QBR of 44.0.
The Texans’ defense is also struggling, allowing more than two points per drive (ninth-most) despite forcing opponents to go three-and-out more than a third of the time (39 percent, eighth). At least J.J. Watt has returned to the team; the 2012 defensive player of the year has been credited with six total pressures and five stops at or behind the line of scrimmage, making him the sixth highest-rated defensive end in the NFL.
- Buffalo Bills, projected 5-11 record in 2018
Based on the down, distance and field position of each pass or rush attempt, we would expect the Bills to have 51 points scored through two games. Instead, they have 23 points for, scoring less than one point per drive. Only the Arizona Cardinals are worse this season.
The good news for Buffalo’s defense: It can’t get any worse. The Bills are allowing a league-high three points per drive in addition to a whopping 90 percent conversion rate in the red zone.
- New York Giants, projected 5-11 record in 2018
It might be time to move on from quarterback Eli Manning. The 37-yearold has a high completion rate, 69 percent, but a career-low 4.8 adjusted net yards per pass, an updated form of the more well-known passer rating. His QBR rating is also in its third year of decline, indicating his performance is 2018 is good enough to win just 33 percent of games played, which roughly translates to a 5-11 record over a full regular season.
Big Blue’s defense, on the other hand, is playing well. PFF ranks their secondary and pass rush as the 12th best in the league through two games, resulting in a below-average adjusted net yards (5.5) and passer rating against (81.6).
- Detroit Lions, projected 5-11 record in 2018
Detroit’s offense has sputtered (nine fewer points than expected) and quarterback Matt Stafford ranks 29th out of 32 qualified passers in QBR thanks to a league-leading four interceptions. But that’s not even the team’s biggest concern: the holes in the defense are big enough to drive a truck through, literally.
The Lions’ run defense is allowing 5.6 yards per carry, second-most in the NFL, with 3.1 yards per carry occurring after contact. Defensive lineman Ricky Jean Francois and linebackers Christian Jones and Jarrad Davis each have received a low, negative grade by PFF for their run defense this season.
- Oakland Raiders, projected 5-11 record in 2018
Oakland’s pass rush has suffered mightily since trading 2017 defensive player of the year Khalil Mack to the Chicago Bears. The Radiers defenders have been credited with 17 total sacks, hits and hurries in 2018, four more than Mack has in two games for his new team.
On offense, Jon Gruden’s system relies on quarterback Derek Carr making short and intermediate routes in addition to getting the ball out as quickly as possible, but that hasn’t worked out for Oakland early in the season. On throws where Carr holds the ball for 2.5 seconds or less he is 42 for 50 (84 percent) with four interceptions and a 74.3 passer rating. When he holds the ball for longer than that his passer rating jumps to 115.7. If Carr can get comfortable throwing the ball quicker, as he did last season (96.5 passer rating), the Raiders could start to crawl their way back to contention.
- Arizona Cardinals, projected 4-12 record in 2018
Division leaders a few years ago, Arizona is being outscored by 16.4 points per game after adjusting for strength of schedule. If that level of mediocrity is sustained, it would be the second-worst campaign in franchise history, slightly behind the 1944 squad, a team created via the merger of the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Chicago Cardinals.