Senate’s most endangered Democrat gambles
Heidi Heitkamp is probably the single most imperiled Democratic incumbent senator in the country. She is running for re-election in a state, North Dakota, that President Donald Trump won by 36 points. FiveThirtyEight gives her less than a 1-in-3 chance of winning. The polling averages put her Republican opponent up by nearly 9 points.
Yet Thursday afternoon, Heitkamp announced that she will vote against the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. In her statement, Heitkamp stressed that she had voted for Neil Gorsuch but said that Kavanaugh had disqualified himself:
“In addition to the concerns about his past conduct, last Thursday’s hearing called into question Judge Kavanaugh’s current temperament, honesty, and impartiality. These are critical traits for any nominee to serve on the highest court in our country.”
Heitkamp also explained her decision by noting that she basically believes Christine Blasey Ford, and that Ford’s sacrifice must be understood in the context of the profound challenges that victims of sexual assault face in coming forward:
“Dr. Ford gave heartfelt, credible, and persuasive testimony. It took great courage and also came at great personal cost. She had nothing to gain and everything to lose by coming forward with her deeply personal story. It was clear that she was testifying not because she wanted to, but because she felt it was her civic duty. When I listened to Dr. Ford testify, I heard the voices of women I have known throughout my life who have similar stories of sexual assault and abuse. Countless North Dakotans and others close to me have since reached out and told me their stories of being raped or sexually assaulted – and expressed the same anguish and fear. I’m in awe of their courage, too. Some of them reported their abuse at the time, but others said nothing until now. Survivors should be respected for having the strength to share what happened to them – even if a generation has since passed. They still feel the scars and suffer the trauma of abuse.”
That’s a pretty gutsy pronouncement in a state where one recent poll showed that Kavanaugh’s nomination has the support of an astonishing 60 percent of voters, with only 27 percent opposed.
It’s possible, of course, that Heitkamp has decided she’s likely to lose and there’s no percentage in casting a political vote for Kavanaugh, so she decided to do the right thing. Or perhaps Heitkamp thinks her only chance of pulling off a surprise victory is to energize the Democratic base to truly supercharged levels.
This latter theory has been advanced by Rachel Bitecofer, an elections analyst at the Wason Center. She has pointed out that, given North Dakota’s deep Republican lean, Heitkamp’s only real chance at winning is if there is a large turnout surge among the Democratic base and the state’s college-educated white voters break Democratic in higher-than-expected numbers.
Indeed, Heitkamp’s decision was immediately greeted by many prominent liberals on Twitter, who called on their followers to send Heitkamp money, suggesting this move may have some success in activating the base.
The Republican spin on the Kavanaugh nomination has been that this battle has driven Republican enthusiasm through the roof, allowing Republicans to reach parity with Democrats in this regard. Republicans are claiming this shift is particularly pronounced in red states with tough Senate races, meaning the battle over Kavanaugh could enable the GOP to hold its majority.
That is certainly possible. But another possibility may be that if Kavanaugh is confirmed over the weekend, as appears likely, the rage among GOP voters at the sight of Blasey Ford’s claims getting a full hearing – and the profound injustice they’ve been forced to watch Kavanaugh endure – could subside.
Meanwhile, on the losing side, the anger and bitterness could remain – meaning the loss could continue to energize Democratic base voters and the college-educated whites who are already driving the anti-Trump backlash.
Heitkamp’s chances still look exceedingly slim. But if she is able to scrape together a miraculous win after having taken such a big gamble in opposing Kavanaugh, the political – and moral – payoff will be huge.