Restaurants will be back, I promise

In August , according to the seasonally adjusted reckonings of the Census Bureau, sales at the nation’s restaurants, bars and other food-and-drink establishments outpaced sales at food and beverage stores for the very first time. This happened eight more times in . In January and )ebruary of this year, it looked as if dining and drinking out had surpassed buying food and drink to eat at home once and for all.

Then came the coronavirus, temporary and permanent restaurant closures and a lot of supermarket, superstore and online binge-buying. Since March, Americans have spent twice as much money at food and beverage stores as at food service and drinking places, and that underrepresents the disparity because lots of food and drink purchases made at Costco, Walmart and online are reported under other categories.

The gap did begin to close in May, but I imagine it will be a while before spending on dining out again surpasses spending on dining in. I also imagine though, that the former will eventually surpass the latter again, and that the gap will then grow and grow in the decades to come.

Clearly, dining out supplanting eating at home is a trend that has been in place for a really long time. This time the food and drink purchased for off-premises consumption does include all those online and Costco purchases. The dining-out spending includes accommodations, which was about of the total as of . A 8.S. Department of Agriculture series that includes spending by governments and businesses as well as households shows spending on food and alcohol away from home to have surpassed spending on food and alcohol consumed at home in , and been about higher in .

Americans have in fact been buying more food from restaurants, not just paying more for it. The food-awayfrom-home share of total average daily energy intake rose from in -

to in - , according to 8SDA surveys. )ast-food restaurants were responsible for most of this rise, indicating that convenience is a big driver in the shift toward food away from home. But in recent years there’s also been a boom in high-end dining as affluent consumers look to buy experiences rather than things.

)ast-food sales are already bouncing back from the coronavirus. )ull-service restaurants, on the other hand, will continue to struggle. At the high end, this was a risky, low-margin business even in the best of times. Many restaurants have already closed permanently in the wake of virus-induced shutdowns, and restocking their ranks could take years.

Demand for what restaurants offer, though, is surely not going away.