Infrastructure, stimulus up next for Congress
,nfrastructure has been a hot topic over the last three Zeeks as laZmakers focus on beating a September 30 expiration of the federal program that funds highZay and other transportation infrastructure. 7his deadline explains the flurry of activity on the issue in the +ouse, and com bined Zith President 7rump¶s recent com ments about the need for a big infrastruc ture bill, you may conclude that a final infrastructure bill is nearing the finish line. :ith various proposals being considered and discussed, Ze outline beloZ Zhat is really happening and Zhy it Zill be a lot more difficult for Con gress to advance a major in frastructure package this year than the headlines suggest.
7he +ouse +ouse Democrats this Zeek passed the ³0oving )orZard Act,´ a $1.5 tril lion infrastructure package. 7his bill is dead on arrival in the Senate. ,t con tains $500 billion for highZay proj ects, Zhich Zould bolster and extend the federal highZay program that expires on September 30. %ut, the bill also contains $1 trillion of spending on green energy, public housing, edu cation, healthcare and other areas outside the scope of traditional transportation in frastructure. 7hese items are essentially political messag es and are notable as being representative of Zhat the Democrats Zould pass again if they fully control :ash ington in 2021. 7his extra $1 trillion Zill be ignored by the Senate, but the $500 billion has a chance to be relevant later this year as Congress must still somehoZ address the September 30 deadline.
7he Senate Republicans have their sights set on a much more measured plan of roughly $300 billion in high Zay transportation spend ing. 7he Senate bill does not fund projects outside of the more traditional transporta tion space. 7his plan passed a Senate committee last year
Zith a unanimous 21 0 vote. :hile the bipartisan support is notable, Ze get the sense that Democrats are cooling to this measure in favor of a larger package that they Zould try to advance next year if they Zin back control of the Senate in 1ovember.
Stimulus 7here is a small chance that infrastructure spending Zill be included in the next stimulus bill, Zhich Ze still expect to be passed into laZ before August. +oZ ever, the stimulus bill is un likely to include significant infrastructure spending out side of certain target areas, such as broadband invest ment. :hile laZmakers al most uniformly believe that an investment in infrastruc ture Zould be good for the economy, Republicans are looking for a stimulus bill more focused on items like ly to have a more immediate impact than infrastructure spending, Zhich could take years to actually make its Zay into the economy in an impactful Zay.
September 30 As noted, the existing Congressional authori]ation for highZay spending expires on Septem ber 30. 7he bills that must be reconciled by then are the $300 Senate bill and the $500 portion of the +ouse bill dedicated to highZays transportation. )rankly, Ze don¶t see a big bipartisan deal emerging by September 30 due to the bitter political environment and the inability of an agreement over hoZ to pay for the bill.,f one doesn¶t, both the +ouse and Senate Zill simply extend the cur rent program for another six months or so Zithout making improvements.
More PPP Changes.
7he Paycheck Protection
Program PPP), the popular small business lending pro gram originally established in the third stimulus bill the CARES Act), continues to be a major focus for Congress. ,n response to groZing bipar tisan calls for greater trans parency regarding the $650 billion program, the 7rea sury and the S%A recently announced that they Zould disclose business names, loan amounts and other key data on loans over $150,000. Con gress recently passed legisla tion to give borroZers under the program greater flexibility in having their loans forgiv en, and there is groZing in terest in going further. :ith the deadline for PPP applica tions having expired on -une 30 and Zith over $130 bil lion of lending capacity still available), the Senate and the +ouse this Zeek passed a bill to extend the program to August 8. Congress also is considering proposals to grant forgiveness to loans under $150,000 and to direct additional loans to small busi nesses in particularly hard hit sectors. As Congress focuses its attention toZards nego tiations on another stimulus package, further changes to PPP Zill feature prominently in that conversation.
Racial Justice
1oZ that police reform proposals have been offered by a majority of laZmakers from both parties, Zhat oth er racial justice issues Zill be tackled by :ashington policy makers" :e expect a number of committee hearings in both chambers, but no specific leg islation is ready at this point to move forZard. 7he +ouse Zill hold various hearings on education reform, healthcare and economic development. ,ts focus Zill be on federal resources needed to address these challenges. 7he Senate Zill focus more on inner city economic development, and %lack and African American entrepreneurship and edu cation. 7he focus here Zill be more on Zhat the private sector can do to address these challenges. 7hese issues ar en¶t ripe for Tuick legislative proposals like police reform, but these issues Zill be dealt Zith individually and emerge throughout the year once they are examined a bit more and proposals developed.
House Healthcare Focus.
7he +ouse this Zeek ap proved a bill to strengthen the Affordable Care Act of 2010 ³2bamacare´). Pushed by +ouse Democrats, the bill Zould provide additional funds to states to set up re insurance exchanges to offer health insurance to their resi dents. 2nly 13 states presently have full state run exchanges. 7he bill also increases federal subsidy levels for eligible res idents to buy their insurance over the exchanges. 7he bill, Zhich is consistent Zith the vieZs of Democratic presi dential nominee -oe %iden, alloZs +ouse Democrats to remind voters that they are focused on the key issue of healthcare in an election year. :hile the +ouse bill Zas ap proved, the Senate Zon¶t act on it though it may address other healthcare legislation.
Presidential Election Day 2020 is 1ov. 3, four months aZay. :hile four months may not seem like a long time, it is a lifetime in a political campaign. 7he campaigns, experts and pollsters Zill all do their best to try and adjust their strategies based on the constantly evolving environ ment from noZ through the fall.