Steelers, Saints, Rams limping into playoffs
The Pittsburgh Steelers appear to be in disarray. After starting the season with 11 straight wins, they have suffered three consecutive losses - to the Washington Football Team, Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals - causing plenty of observers to doubt the Steelers’ place among this year’s Super Bowl contenders. Beginning with a narrow, unimpressive 19-14 win against the shorthanded Baltimore Ravens in Week 12, the Steelers have scored 20 or fewer points in four consecutive games with Ben Roethlisberger as their starting quarterback for the first time since 2004.
“We’re not a good football group right now and so we understand the consequences that come with that,” Steelers Coach Mike Tomlin said after the latest loss. “We’re working on a short week, we’ve got to be better than what we’ve been and that’s just the reality of it.”
The New Orleans Saints have had struggles of their own. The franchise will have five representatives in the (virtual) 2021 Pro Bowl, but there is no celebrating their recent results. Once the NFC front-runners, the Saints have lost back-to-back games to the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs (by a total of six points), harming their hopes for the NFC’s top seed and the conference’s only first-round bye.
Not to be outdone, the LosAngeles Rams were handed a loss by the hapless New York Jets on Sunday. Gang Green was 0-13 and a 17½-point underdog heading into that matchup, yet still managed a 23-20 victory, making the Jets the first winless road team in NFL history to beat a team with at least nine wins. The loss might cost Los Angeles the top spot in the NFC West and a chance to host a playoff game in the wild-card round.
All three of those teams can breathe a slight sigh of relief, though, because peaking toward the end of the NFL’s regular season is not required for playoff success. Since 2002, 110 playoff teams ended their regular season by going 4-1 or 5-0, yet only 17 of them reached the Super Bowl. That means 19 Super Bowl participants were among the 106 playoff teams that finished the regular season 3-2 or worse. That includes the 2012 Baltimore Ravens, who marched to Super Bowl XLVII despite a 1-4 finish. In other words, just get into the playoffs and take it from there.
Here are reasons to still believe in the three above-mentioned troubled
squads.
– Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are indeed playing awful football but most of their foibles are on the offensive side of the ball. During this three-game losing streak, Roethlisberger has completed 58% of his passes for 662 yards, five touchdowns and four interceptions, resulting in a below-average 71.8 passer rating. The game charters at Pro Football Focus rank him as the second-worst qualified passer in this stretch, behind only Cam Newton. That site had ranked Roethlisberger 16th out of 29 qualified passers through the first 12 weeks of the sea
son. If he can get back to that threshold, the Steelers should round back into form.
Pittsburgh’s defense, on the other hand, continues to grade out high. Football Outsiders ranks Pittsburgh as the No. 1 pass defense and thirdbest run defense of 2020, and that’s after adjusting for opponent.
Much of that is due to the fabulous play of defensive end T.J. Watt. The favorite to win defensive player of the year, Watt leads the league in sacks (13) and tackles for a loss (22) to go along with 69 total quarterback pressures, the third most in the NFL. Defensive tackle Cameron Heyward
has added 59 more quarterback pressures, sixth most in the NFL, plus 25 stops against the run, fifth most at his position. In the secondary, safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is allowing a minuscule 0.2 yards per snap when targeted in coverage.
Pittsburgh also has a chance at a unique accolade. The Steelers have the most sacks (47) and the second most takeaways (25) in the NFL, and they’ve given up the second fewest points (264). If they lead in each category at the end of the regular season, it would mark the first defensive triple crown since the AFL-NFL merger of 1970.
– New Orleans Saints. The Saints’ offense can be given a pass for last week’s loss to the Chiefs. Star receiver Michael Thomas, nursing an ankle injury on injured reserve, didn’t suit up, while another wide receiver, Tre’Quan Smith, suffered an ankle injury of his own at the start of the third quarter. That left reserves at receiver for Drew Brees, who was making his first start after being sidelined for four games with broken ribs and a punctured lung.
Once everyone is back on the field, expect Brees to more closely mimic the form that has him still ranked No. 6 in ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating entering this week. His return should also reignite running back Alvin Kamara in the passing game. Kamara was targeted 82 times in his 10 games with Brees under center this season, catching 66 of those balls for 613 receiving yards and five touchdowns. In parts of six games with Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill at quarterback, Kamara has been targeted 20 times, producing 126 receiving yards and no touchdowns.
Plus, New Orleans boasts the second best defense of 2020, per Football Outsiders, which adjusts for strength of schedule. The New Orleans pass rush even had a solid game in Sunday’s loss to the defending Super Bowl champions. The Saints sacked Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes four times and pressured him on 30 of his 54 drop-backs. After adjusting the Saints’ sack rate for their strength of opponent, they entered Week 16 with the league’s second best pass-rushing unit.
– Los Angeles Rams. Even after the humiliating loss to the Jets, the Rams still have the NFL’s top defense in terms of points allowed per drive (1.5), and the second best defense at forcing opponents to go three-and-out (37%). The key to it all is Aaron Donald. The two-time NFL defensive player of the year is the highest rated defender by Pro Football Focus and entered the week tied with Saints defensive end Trey Hendrickson for the NFL lead in sacks with 12½, his fourth straight season with double-digit sacks. Donald also has a league-leading 85 quarterback pressures, four forced fumbles, one fumble recovery and one pass breakup through 14 games.
As it stands now, the Rams would open the playoffs against sub.500 Washington, a team the Rams crushed earlier this season and one with two poor options under center in Dwayne Haskins and Alex Smith.