BREXIT HARBINGER OF U.S. VOTE?

The circumstances don’t line up perfectly, but the Brexit vote in the United Kingdom Thursday, and its ramifications for the United States, have at least echoes of 37 years ago when a change in leadership across the pond precipitated one here.

In 1979, the British Labor Party had a weak leader in James Callaghan, the country’s economy was tepid and strikes roiled the country. In the same year, the United States had a weak leader in Jimmy Carter, the country’s economy was tepid and a hostage crisis roiled the country.

A general election in the U.K. that year ushered in a strong leader in Conservative Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. A presidential election in the U.S. the following year ushered in a strong leader in Republican Ronald Reagan.

In 2016, the U.K. has seen its way of life threatened by unfettered immigration and sovereignty by unelected bureaucrats in the European Union. The United States, meanwhile, has seen its way of life threatened by unfettered immigration and rule by a president who uses executive authority and by unelected bureaucrats in federal agencies.

The Brexit (British exit) vote signaled a desire for a new start for the U.K., one of independence, nationalist supporters of the “leave” side said. Though an official break from the European Union would not occur for at least two years, “remain” supporter Prime Minister David Cameron said he would resign by October and leave the departure date up to his successor.

In the United States, candidates in both major political parties ran primary campaigns that signaled a different way of doing things, a change from how the country has been governed the past eight years. One of those candidates, Donald Trump, is now his party’s presumptive nominee.

In the U.K., experts and political and media elites did not believe the “leave” side could win. Momentum, especially toward the election, was said to be on the “remain” side. President Obama, an enthusiastic supporter of immigration, was delighted to give his endorsement to the “remain” side.

In the results, though, the “leave” voters unexpectedly included many middle-class workers, who may have felt their jobs and their families threatened by the continued dictates of the European Union.

In the United States, experts and elites do not believe Trump has a shot at winning. Momentum is said to be on the side of establishment Democrat Hillary Clinton. Obama, who would see a triumph by his former secretary of state as endorsement for his “third term,” was delighted to give his endorsement to Clinton.

Meanwhile, many middle-class workers, who may feel their jobs and their families threatened by the continued policies of the current president, have shown great interest in Trump.

Like we said at the outset, the circumstances don’t line up perfectly. But stranger things have happened.