Refugees pour out of Turkey once more as deal with Europe falters

BODRUM, Turkey — The number of Syrians and others fleeing Turkey for Greece is growing rapidly once again as an agreement reached months ago to curb the flood of refugees into Europe seems to be on the verge of collapse.

Until recently, the deal between Turkey and the European Union, meant to contain the worst refugee crisis faced by the Continent since World War II, seemed to be working quite well. Departures plummeted, and the pressure on European leaders from far-right politicians opposed to migration appeared to ease.

But that has started to change. More than a thousand refugees, including Syrians, Afghans, Pakistanis and Iraqis, arrived in Greece last week, nearly double the number the previous week, according to the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees. That is still far below the roughly 1,700 refugees arriving in Greece every day at the height of the crisis last year, but far more than the 50 arrivals a day in the relatively placid months after the deal was reached.

It is not clear why the number of migrants is rising now. Many of them have lived in Turkey for some time and considered making a life there, difficult though that may be, particularly after hearing of the billions of dollars in aid promised by Europe in the deal, assistance that now seems threatened.

For some, it may be the realization, after several months, that their dream of reaching Europe is still within reach because Greek authorities are not, as promised, sending many Syrians back to Turkey. For others, it might be a matter of simple economics: From a peak of roughly $1,500 a person, the cost of the trip has dropped lately to as little as $500. It could be the approach of winter weather.

But clearly, with acrimony between Turkey and Europe rising since the Turkish government responded to a failed coup with widespread purges, the migrant deal is looking increasingly shaky, and Europe faces the prospect of a renewal of a crisis that has already roiled its politics.

Trying desperately to prevent that, European officials have engaged recently in a flurry of diplomacy with Turkish leaders. The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, and its enlargement commissioner, Johannes Hahn, visited Ankara last week, the highest-level European leaders to travel to Turkey since the failed coup.

Mogherini said the two sides had agreed to “talk more to each other and a little less about each other.”

Under the deal, the European Union pledged more than $6 billion to improve the lives of the more than 3 million Syrians living in Turkey. It also agreed to renew negotiations for Turkey to join the bloc, a prospect that appears dimmer than ever given the tensions between the two sides since the coup attempt.